Weather Blog: StormTALK! Sunday Edition

A challenging forecast for sure in the week ahead. At least we get this mess out of here just in time for Thunder over Louisville. But ---busy until then.

I will again break this up into time periods.

OVERNIGHT:
I posted on FB earlier about the showers that were pushing through the central/eastern part of the state. The dry air underneath these showers is leading to a downflank push of air..so gusty winds for a few more hours. Some spots will see the rain reach the ground. But this will be a quick moving/light event ...mainly impacting southern and eastern sections through midnight. After that---dry.

MONDAY:
This looks to be a relatively quite day. We will have high clouds at times...but the dry air in place looks to remain in charge. So anything that develops would be brief/light----but at this point---I do not even see a trigger for activity to build onto. So a dry warm day in the mid 70s on tap.

TUESDAY MORNING:
There looks to be a band of storms moving in during this time. Just how far south/east they make it is questionable. I am adding a risk for storms during this period regardless.

Latest HI RES NAM does show the band approaching near 8am.

We should calm down with some sunshine midday. That will help our climb up to 80.

TUESDAY NIGHT:
There is another wave that crosses the state overnight. This may spark showers and storms along it. So rain chance is needed here as well.

SPC outlook has the main risk for severe west, but we cannot rule out brief warnings locally during this period. Especially if the storms can get rooted...as most look to be elevated. (elevated storms have a lesser impact on severe elements reaching the ground).

WEDNESDAY:
SPC outlook has the main threat west. Based on the wind fields on GFS/NAM...I think that outlook will get pushed more east into IL/IN and very close to the OH river.

This looks to be a very warm day in the 80s and quite unstable too. CAPES are high (up to 2500) and EHI scans are elevated some.

Any storm during this period can also become severe quickly with damaging winds/hail...and they likely will fall apart quickly as well. The down side to that is the winds from a collapsed storm may act as a mini cold front and produce additional storms next to the previous one. So while we look to have many areas with sunshine and temps in the 80s...some could get stuck under a training effect of thunderstorms. We will have to watch that for not only a brief severe threat---but for heavy rains impacting the same locations. Just too hard to predict such events ...even the day of.

THURSDAY:
This is where the GFS/NAM/EURO differ on the setup. And the setup is certainly important on severe risk.

EURO/NAM support the idea of the low mainly tracking north into N IL and into MI. Here is the EURO for early Thursday.

NAM can only see out to Thursday morning right now...but you can see how it looks to be following the EURO idea.

The NAM/EURO idea would create a strong wind belt through the region by Thursday night/early Friday. That certainly would lead to a risk for strong winds and heavy rain.

It is the GFS...that is concerning. It tracks a surface low from just west of Paducah due north into central IL/IN. This creates a very strongly wind sheared environment Thursday afternoon/overnight.

If the GFS were to verify---this would raise the severe risk for our area.

As of now, SPC has the severe risk to the south/west on Thursday.

They have not outlooked yet for Thursday night/Friday...but I find it hard to believe they won't outlook us based on the data I am seeing right now.

We will just have to wait and see how this all looks tomorrow.

THUNDER OVER LOUISVILLE
No real changes here. It looks cool with highs in the 50s...(maybe 60) with west winds that will switch around to the northeast later Saturday night. But we can nail down the wind direction better once we get a handle on the storm track/timing that is mentioned above.

NOTE: Kevin is out this week on a project so I will be filling in for him the next several days. Figures with the crazy weather huh? :)