Pretty active weather week ahead. Warm. Storms. Cold-er.
First...the warm.
Lows at night I think will be the most noticable. Low to mid 60s will certainly allow for more of a "summer-y" feel. I am sure it will certainly feed the basketball fans.
Highs will HIGHLY depend on sunshine the next two days. The potential is certainly there for highs in the 80-85 degree range. Clouds will shave those numbers down a few degrees...but that will just depend on cloud cover over YOUR area. Nevertheless, warm!
Rain chance over the next 48 hours look low and isolated. Moisture levels are increasing---but the atmosphere is warming aloft as well---and you need colder air aloft to really raise concern for isolated storms.
That will change when a COLD FRONT moves in to supply that colder air aloft. That looks to be Thursday.
The problem with this front remains to be timing. GFS/NAM/EURO still vary on this. And implications of timing affect instability/intensity of those storms. So it is an important question to answer.
Usually models are too fast with fronts in the longer term. So the slower idea seems more likely. However, this line of storms will develop bowing segments and will likely have sections of it that will move faster than others. That will lead to some timing being "sped" up as a result. Just too challenging this far out. We should have a better idea on timing tomorrow and certainly Wednesday.
Right now we plan to aim for early Thursday morning for timing. Rush hour could be affected. This is a blend of the faster GFS (overnight Wed night) and the slower EURO (Thursday mid afternoon).
The models do show the wind fields increasing Thursday morning. Wind damage threat certainly is a risk.
Dewpoints are rising...so we will have the moisture to feed the storms.
The CAPES/instability remains the questionable part. And that ...again...depends on frontal passage timing. GFS shows at least some instability to work with. Enough certainly to tap into the stronger winds aloft.
The BUFKIT soundings show how the wind shear looks to be mostly unidirectional. Which is mostly a south to southwest flow from the surface up. That cuts down on any turning of winds to allow tornado development. However, there is some speed shear showing up in the lower vs upper levels so an isolated tornado in that setup cannot be ruled out. They look to be brief if any were to develop. Overall---just damaging winds will be the main threat..and much of that may be elevated enough to keep the strongest just above the tree-line. It will be close however. Greater instability could change this profile considering this is the GFS which is the one favoring the overnight trends.
After this ...we cool down quite a bit Friday/Saturday. Lows may dip into the low 30s Friday night. That may lead to frost/freeze alerts since the growing season has now started.
There is another storm for next week that will impact the Thunder Over Louisville forecast. That forecast remains quite challenging...but hardly in stone. I will discuss that more tomorrow.
For now...enjoy the warm weather and basketball!!!
With this crazy up and doooowwwwn weather I am surprised nobodies gone cross eyed over there in the weather center.lol It would be enough to make me cross eyed. And winter sure wants to hang on, granted I am not ready for bad storms yet. An nice in between would be great. I know, I know not happening.lol
Posted by: Rainbowwheels | April 08, 2013 at 04:56 PM