Friday 10:00 AM 11/6

There have been some changes in the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. This is now going to an only wind scale as storm surge can vary on the size of the hurricane, the underwater structure of a coastline at landfall and the angle and speed a storm hits the coast.....click  here  

The NHC is also asking for comments about the public advisories they issue. I have always complained that the public advisories don't list the wind and other important data until the 7th or 8th paragraph. Also, you have to look to other statements to find the actual NHC wind forecast with a storm. For more on their proposed changes.....click  here 

This El Nino Advisory was issued yesterday by NOAA.....
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.

During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central andeastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Niño-3.4 index increased nearly a degree with the most recent weekly value at +1.5°C. Above-average subsurface temperature anomalies increased across a large region of the central and east-central Pacific, with anomalies ranging between +1 to +5°C by the end of the month . Consistent with this warming, subsurface oceanic heat contentanomalies (average departures in the upper 300m of the ocean) also increased during the month.

In addition, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies strengthened over much of theequatorial Pacific. The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strengthening El Niño.

There continues to be disagreement among the models on the eventual strength of El Niño, but the majority indicate that the three-month average Niño-3.4 SST index value will range between +1.0°C and +1.5°C during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January. At this time, there is a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist. Most of the models suggest that this event will last through March-May 2010, although the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia.

For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.

Comments

[chris b]

Does this EL NINO change winter forecasts to reflect less snow and warmer air? It seems like with el nino the battle of the rain/snow line is always near the ohio river, would you agree John?

Chris...this El Nino forecast is not set in stone...a weakening El Nino could put us in the higher snowfall category.....JB

[Dawn Vitiello]

hey John

Is there any way that there could be one place to put all the winter forecast? On one page all nicely together so we could compare them and re read them as the winter goes along? I read something about El Nino and it strengthing but I had also read the opposite, I would love to re read and compare easily no WAVE's site.

Thanks for all you do!!

Thanks Dawn....If I find a site where they are all listed, I will put up the link. I will do a summary of what everyone is saying later this month....JB

Dawn

[Glenn]

John I sent my winter forcast in to you as a comment did you get it or did you not see it?

Glen...All of the winter forecasts are either posted on the main page or the comment section. Yours was posted Saturday, October 31st...JB

[matt]

the kelvin wave has been warming waters in the equatorial pacific from west to east and there is potential for the propagation of another one in late december, but it may not do as much damage as the first because the majority of the warmer water has already been spread about..i'm starting to have doubts about this winter as far as it being worth a squat..although MJO is in a phase that would not be conducive to further strengthening of the ENSO event, but that could change too, so these different factors do leave a great deal of uncertainty on the table.

FEI-i have also heard from one met that the east gets blow-torched from early to mid jan before a return to winter..geeez, not that i think it will verifiy, but that cast is out there.

[jackdude]

John,

I forgot which runs are considered more accurate.

00Z GFS 12Z GFS
06Z GFS 18Z GFS

The better track record is the 00 and 12.....JB

[D-]

John - Can you remember the last folklore winter forecast that was equivilent to this years? It seems that this year really is favoring a colder winter. Last year I believe it called for a mild to norm winter. Here again is what you posted for this year:
The current score on the folklore winter forecasts....
COLD/SNOWY 15 forecasts
MILD 1
NORMAL 3

D-we have never had a rout like this....there are still another 20 weather sayings coming up....JB

[Robbie]

For snow lovers, a strengthening el nino can't be a good thing. A weakening one is good, but usually not one getting stronger. Maybe the current warming is an anomoly, but the rapid switch from the cold of October to the warmth of November concerns me as someone who wants snow.

John, how often does such a big shift from cold to warm like the one we had revert back to cold? Last season, it turned cold about this time and really never warmed up until June. I've got horrible visions of 2001-2002 running through my head.

Robbie....not to worry, all signs are still pointing toward the big chill possibly arriving by mid-December......JB