Belski's Blog

Monday late evening 3/31

Here comes the rain. HPC has a slight risk for flash flooding from Evansville to Paducah. A WATCH has been issued for that area.

Locally we expecting up to an inch of rain overnight with some locations over an inch.

The latest models still all indicating 2 to 5 inches of rain Thursday into Friday.

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CPC has above normal temps and near normal rain for us during April.

Click on any map for a larger view.

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The Minneapolis area ended up with 4 to 8 inches of snow.

Several opening day baseball games were rained out.

A fairly active weather day to end the month.

For Louisville in March:
High 73.....there were only 3 days in the 70s. Last year during March there were 10 days in the 70s and 5 days in the 80s. Low 17.... there were 7 days below freezing. The month avered almost a degree below normal.  For rain the total was just under 9 inches and for snow the total at SDF was 10.9 and the total at the NWS was 14.7 inches.

Monday early evening 3/31

At KJRH in Tulsa, some hawks have built a nest in the TV station's tower and now a young hawk has hatched.....for more....click  here

Those hawks need to watch out, some nasty weather in Oklahoma this afternoon.

Through 5:30 there have been 3 tornadoes and a large number of wind and hail reports from Dallas all the way to St. Louis.  SPC still brings the SLIGHT RISK only to the Evansville area as the storms will weaken tonight. Rain amounts in most areas tonight will be in the 1/2 to 1 inch range. Later this week a 2 to 4 or possibly a 2 to 5 inch rain will be arriving for Thursday into Friday.

 

Here are a couple of photos of the high water at Taylorsville Lake.

Thanks to Chuck in Mt. Washington.

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Back to the severe weather...here are a few reports from this afternoon.....
Monett, MO in the SW part of the state... SEMI BLOWN OVER ON SOUTH 37 HIGHWAY. DAMAGE ALSO REPORTED AT A TRUCK STOP, THE ROOF OF THE NAZARENE CHURCH AND THE BAPTIST CHURCH, THE EISENHOWER BUILDING, AND RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS. TREES ALSO DOWN ON RAILROAD TRACKS

Overnight in Oklahoma City.... AN EF-1 TORNADO STRUCK FAR NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA
CITY...DAMAGING HOMES...TREES...FENCES AND POWER POLES. HEAVIEST DAMAGE WAS IN THE VALENCIA ADDITION...WHERE MULTIPLE HOMES WERE DAMAGED. PATH WIDTH WAS 50 TO 100 YARDS...WITH A PATH LENGTH OF APPROXIMATELY 3/10 MILE.

The latest Thunder forecast is for highs in the 60s.

For the official Thunder Over Louisville website....click  here

Monday early afternoon 3/31

Even though our rain is about over....for now...it looks like March will be going out like a lion as winds will increase this afternoon and evening with gusts to 30 mph. The sun is out in western KY and we should see some clearing here by late afternoon.

Tracking rain totals.... we are up to 8.94" for the rain total for the month (SDF). Time is running out to get 10 inches of rain and 10 inches of snow in the same month. The GFS has us getting more thaqqn 4 inches of rain this week. To me, that total seems high.

Minneapolis is reporting 1/2 mile visiblity with moderate snow.

SPC severe weather numbers are unchanged from this morning. See the previous post.

In Cincinnati it is opening day for the Reds.
Rain is falling in Cincinnati. It doesn't look to be enough to cancel the game but there may be a delay or two.
To see the Cincinnati NEXRAD....click  here

Monday morning 3/31

The day is already off to a busy start with tennis ball size hail being reported in Oklahoma this morning and NE Texas recovering from up to 15 inches of rain over the weekend. From the SPC...on the left is the wind chances today and tornado is on the right. Officially the slight risk comes up to the Evansville area. The hail chance peaks out at 45% over Oklahoma and Missouri (not shown). The storms will arrive here overnight in a weakening mode as far as severe but still producing lightning and heavy downpours.
As far as today.....we will have an occasional downpour into mid-day with lower rain chances for the afternoon hours.
Two systems this week and HPC puts 3 to 4 inches of rain in our area.

Rain totals this month in Louisville:
NWS: 9.52"
SDF:  8.68"

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Yesterday was the 21st anniversary of the big end of March snow in Louisville. About 10 inches fell in just several hours. This photo was taken in my backyard. I would have to check the official records but I believe it ranks as the 11th or 12th biggest snowstorm ever in the city. At the time of the snow it did rank in the top ten but we have had at least three bigger snows since then. It was the biggest snow for so late in the season.

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Today...heavy snow is falling in eastern South Dakota heading up to Minnesota.

Forecast snow amounts:
Sioux Falls, SD: 6 inches
Minneapolis: 6-8
northern MN: up to 11"

Sunday late afternoon 3/30

Baseball opens it's season tonight....well the U.S. opener since the Red Sox and A's played in Japan last week.

A new stadium for Washington, D.C.  To take a virtual tour of the new stadium....click  here

There is a chance for a sprinkle this evening in DC with temps in the 40s. 

Cincinnati's home opener is Monday afternoon with a forecast of mid 60s and a chance for showers.

The Cleveland Indians home opener is Monday afternoon with a forecast of showers and lower 60s.

Last year's opener was called off after heavy snow started falling during the game. In fact the Indians had to move their series to Chicago after snow kept falling and there was a possibility of no baseball being played for a week.

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The early week system looks to produce a line of late night storms Monday night. SPC keeps the severe weather risk to the west....I still think they ma end up putting us in the 15% risk area....we'll see. The 5 day rain forecast includes the early week and the Thurday night system. Plenty of rain on the way.

The 324 hour GFS show rain on Thunder (April 12) mainly in the morning.

Friday late evening 3/28

It's still a long way off but the GFS has windy and possibly rainy weather for part of Thunder Day (April 12) in Louisville. It looks like a front at some point during the day. Nothing to be concerned about this far out.

It will be interesting to see the SPC outlook in the morning. My thinking is that eventually we will be put in some sort of risk for Monday night.

Friday early evening 3/28

Happy Friday to you. In the Storm Center today we have a shadow....Dustin is visiting with us today and here is what he has to say about the weather.....

Showers have been moving out of our area into Virginia.  Some more weekend rain is going to move in on Sunday.  Hopefully, we will warm up next week, I'm ready for warmer temperatures!! We should be warmer than today as it will warm into the 60's and 70's.

Watch out for the birds on Sunday, if they stay out during the rain, the rain will stick around a little while.

Thanks Dustin......

Hopefully we are done with our snow. Here are a couple of pretty shots from Colorado where the snow in the mountains will stick around for a long time. Tht's Aspen on the left and Copper Mountain on the right. I was at Copper Mountain during the 4th of July one time and we had a snowball fight.

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Yesterday was the anniversary date of the 1964 Alaska Earthquake. The 1964 Alaska earthquake was the largest ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere. And for Alaskans who experienced it, it's something they'll never forget. New technology measures that quake at 9.2 although an older version of the Richter scale suggested it was an 8.6 magnitude. The photo on the left is from downtown Anchorage. To learn more about the earthquake....click  here  or  here

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Friday early afternoon 3/28

The HPC and the SPC have the heaviest rain and severe weather forecast Monday to be west of us. Click on either map for a larger view.

Here's what the SPC says about severe weather... MODEL FORECASTS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE TROUGH SUGGESTING A MID-LEVEL JET WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN RESPONSE...VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE STORMS AND THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

NWS Louisville.... BY LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY...ECMWF AND GFS AGREE REASONABLY WELL BRINGING A STRONGER SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA WITH DECENT LOW AND MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS...ALTHOUGH DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS UNCLEAR AT
THIS TIME. THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME TSTMS. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM...ALTHOUGH IT SHOULD BE A FAST MOVER

Thursday late evening 3/27

This is the tornado memorial in downtown Louisville at 8th and Main. The March 27, 1890 tornado went right through that portion of downtown. The storm killed 76 people and to this date is the 25th deadliest tornado in U.S. history. For more on this storm from the Filson historical society....click  here

This map shows the track of that tornado.

For a list of the 25 dealiest tornadoes in the U.S.....click  here

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Severe storms now over Missouri and Illinois will weaken shortly. There will be some heavy downpours as these storms move through later tonight. Areas that get a quick inch or two in a short time will have some flooding issues so the HPC has put our area in a SLIGHT RISK for flash flooding.

Here's your first look at Thunder over Louisville weather on the GFS 384 hour forecast and it looks quiet with temps in the 60s.

Click on any map or image for a larger view.

Thursday early evening 3/27

The water looks a little choppy at the Lake of the Ozarks where a severe thunderstorm with half dollar size hail is moving through.

Qute a few hailers with that line of storms whcih should become non-severe later this evening.

Hail up to golf ball size has just been reported over northeastern Oklahoma..

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HPC has lowered the rain forecast for tonight and tomorrow around the region so it will not be as heavy as last night when many areas north of Louisville ended up with 2 to 4 inches of rain.

Monday's system still looks potent enough to produce at least 1 to 2 inches of rain and possibly more if it slows down a little. More updates on that to come.

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If you are heading to Florida next week, Orlando is expecting highs in the 80s every day. Panama City and Destin will be in the 70s every day. Maybe 80 one or two days.

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