Belski's Blog

Friday late evening 2/29

The CPC has put us in the heavy snow potential for Tuesday.
Tuesday is still too far out for the HPC.

18Z GFS really warms it up for Tuesday with mostly rain....bad GFS.

00Z NAM shifting east...looks promising for snow...good NAM.

All of the models are split...some with rain...some with snow.

WeatherPlus has heavy snow here on Tuesday.
The Weather Channel has heavy snow southern Illinois to central Indiana.
AccuWeather...still no alarm for snow...just for 3 inches of rain.

February weather numbers for Louisville
High: 70
Low: 19
Snow: 5.8"
Rain: 4.78"
15 days with below normal temps...2 at normal...12 above normal

I will be doing more updates than usual this weekend so be sure and check back. Have a good weekend.

Friday late afternoon 2/29

I am doing the weather live at Kroger this evening to cover the milk and bread rush for the upcoming snow.....just kidding. Acutally I am doing the weather live at Kroger to publicize the return of the weather alert radios for $29.99.  Every home should have one.

I am going to take you through the GFS on Tuesday system. Click on any map for a larger view. Please remember this is not John's forecast...this is Mr. GFS... Tues. 7 AM: a 1000mb low over northern GA. The blue line is the freezing line at 5,000 ft. so roughly north and west of that line will be snow. You can see we are on the border at 7:00 AM. The darker green in the snow area would be roughly a 2-4 inch snow over that last 6 hours.
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By 1 PM the low is down to 996 mb. The rain-snow line is over to interstate 75.
That dark green area for the 6 hour precip. total in our area is for 2 to 4 inches of snow.
Look at the dark blue around Hopkinsville...that's over 5 inches of snow in a 6 hour period.

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By 7 PM the low has intensified to 992 mb. The rain-snow line is into far eastern Kentucky.
See the -10 line. That's -10 C at 5,000 feet which is pretty cold air. This would up our rain:snow ratio to higher than 10:1.
-8 C sometimes is a prime set up for heavy snow although usually anywhere from -3 to -8 will be fine.
We are in the dark blue which would be 5-8 inches of snow over a 6 hour period.

By 1 AM The storm is lifting out with an inch or two of snow for the 6 hour period.

So the GFS is trending back to the east but the NWS is not buying it.

Louisville NWS:  AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST LATE IN THE DAY TUESDAY THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH BUT MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL KEEP
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. COOLER AIR WILL SWEEP INTO THE AREA LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BY TUESDAY EVENING THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE COOL ENOUGH TO TURN THE RAIN TO LIGHT SNOW.

Indianapolis NWS: GFS/EUROPEAN MODELS STILL INDICATE A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. BY MONDAY NIGHT. THEY ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT...HOWEVER THEY ARE NOW TRENDING A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH TRACK OF LOW.  1000-500 MB THICKNESS ARE LOW ENOUGH FOR SNOW FOR THE NORTHWEST HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER I AM NOT COMPLETELY BUYING THIS FARTHER SE TRACK YET. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTANTY WITH PRECIP TYPE AS MODELS ON PREVIOUS RUNS INDICATE MAINLY RAIN...WHILE ONLY NOW DO THEY SHOW MOSTLY SNOW IN OUR FAR SW.

HPC has a heavy snow risk for Sunday night and Monday from Oklahoma to Michigan. They have a slight risk for 8 inches of snow over St. Louis. I remember the 2004 storm...on Sunday night the 12-18 inch forecast was from Springfield, MO to St. Louis to Chicago. Then it shifted east from Evansville, IN to Fort Wayne, IN. That's not to say this eastward trend will hold. This is certainly worth watching closely this weekend.
The Weather Channel now has heavy snow from western Kentucky to central and northern Indiana so they are past the rain and snow shower chance in those areas.
AccuWeather WeatherAlarm has 3 inches of rain here Monday and Tuesday with no snow. Henry says 4-10 inches of snow from western Kentucky and Tennessee up to Ohio which I assume would include Louisville.

Feel free to let me know what your thoughts are. We'll all figure this out together.
 

Friday early afternoon 2/29

Quick update...most of the models are taking Tuesday's storm into eastern KY but keep us a little too warm for snow. However....the GFS has come back to the east....come to John GFS...come here... now with a 8-12 inch snow for Tuesday. It's not 20 but if....IF we can get 8...most should be happy with that. Check back often over the weekend. Someone in the Ohio Valley is going to get a lot of snow with this.
There are some indications a second system coming in on Thursday. When have we ever had 2 snowstorms 2 days apart??? This would drop a few inches if it all came together.

Lets watch the trends.....if you want heavy snow...you don't want the low track from Bowling Green to southern Ohio. You want the track east of Nashville to London to Huntington and NNE from there.

Friday morning 2/29

Thanks to Alan of eastern Jefferson Co. for this photo from this morning. Pea size hail or maybe large sleet....anyway atunderstorm dropped it this morning. Several reports of thunder and lightning and small hail this morning. I was going to say it's March Madness but we have the extra day of February today. BTW March Madness originally was a weather phrase used to describe the battle between winter and spring. CBS picked up on it for basketball.

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HPC has their heavy snow risk out for Sunday with a moderate risk across central Missouri. This is the start of the big storm for early next week. There no general agreement yet. The warm air side of the storm will probably be rain for us although snow is possible not too far to the west. The cold wrap around may bring us some snow. The storm would have to move very slow or stall out for us to get any big amounts. We are not ruling anything out. We'll see if those who said no snow will be coming around to our way of thinking.

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That's the current view in Detroit on the left. They are expecting 2-4 inches of snow. Cleveland on the right also expecting 2-4.

Thursday late evening 2/28

I always appreciate everyone's input and help. From Rakemaker, in case you haven't seen this.... wxrisk.com has put us in the threat category for a major snowstorm. Check it out... click  here

The Weather Channel keeps changing for Tuesday. They started well up in the 40s with rain. Then they went to rain and snow showers...high 39. Now the latest is for rain and snow...high 37. Still no mention of snow on the AccuWeather local forecast.

Just in from the NWS Louisville for tonight.... THE EVAPORATIONAL COOLING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW INITIAL PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS MOSTLY SNOW MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM HAWESVILLE IN HANCOCK COUNTY TO NEAR RICHMOND IN MADISON COUNTY. FURTHER SOUTH...TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY COOLED BELOW GUIDANCE.  AM
CONCERNED ABOUT A BIT OF A WINTRY MIX DOWN THAT WAY...SPECIFICALLYIN OUR FAR SOUTHEAST SECTIONS.  WILL ADJUST TEMPS DOWN HERE A BIT AND ADD A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET IN WITH THE INITIAL BATCH OF PRECIP. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL WARMING IN THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AFTER 09Z...SO A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN IS EXPECTED.  BEFORE THE TRANSITION TO RAIN...1/2 TO 3/4 OF SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA...MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

Thursday early evening 2/28

Tomorrow is Leap Day. The extra day added to the calendar every 4 years.

Each year is approximately 365.25 days long. Every fourth year an extra day is added to even this out.

On any century year that is not divisible by 400, no day is added. In other words, there was a leap day in 2000 but there was no leap day in 1900, 1800 or 1700.

To send someone a leap day email card.....this is one of several sites out there.... click  here

The Louisville NWS has a leap day weather page....click  here

The 18Z GFS is out...yesterday it was indicating 20 inches of snow for us which sent the city going to buy milk and bread and snow blowers. I mentioned this yesterday and stated very emphatically it wasn't going to happen. No 20 inches of snow for you!!!  There is still a chance for snow with this system though. The latest GFS has heavy rain and then an accumulating snow on the backside of the low late Tuesday into Tuesday night. Fellow blog readers and snow lovers, we are keeping our fingers crossed for one more snow before spring. We'll update this storm again tomorrow. Hopefully we are still in the running for snow then. If the low goes up across eastern TN and far eastern KY and can pull in enough cold air then it could be a 2004 type of storm. Right now that is not in the forecast.

Thursday late afternoon 2/28

If you want to take part in a world record, head to Detroit this weekend.
The Chad show on  106.7 The Fox in Detroit is going to go for the record number of people making a snow angel at one time. 

This photo shows the record set last winter in North Dakota with almost 9,000 people taking part. If Detroit breaks the record this weekend, look for North Dakota to try to get it back if not later this month, then for sure next winter.

For more from The Fox...click here

If it ever snows here, maybe we could get everybody down to the Great Lawn for a record try.

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Several cities in New England have broken their record for seasonal snowfall.... click  here

We are holding at 9.3 inches here...still trying to get to double digits.

On the storm system for next week... more signs are pointing toward heavy rain instead of snow at this time. Yesterday's run of the GFS though was a classic. We have framed it and have it hanging in the weather office. Some forecasters will say...well these systems always trend to the NW so this will do the same. You have to be careful because statements like..."we never get tornadoes here in February" can come back to get you just like the northwest trend doesn't always happen.
NWS Louisville: BY 00Z TUESDAY (Mon 7 PM)...WE RAMP UP POPS TO LIKELY AS THE SFC LOW APPEARS TO BOMB OUT AND RIDE NEWD FROM NRN MS TO ERN KY/TN BY 12Z TUESDAY. SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AT LEAST WILL BE PRESENT SO KEPT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THERE FOR NOW. ONLY HAVE ISLD WORDING THOUGH IN CASE THE LOW TRACKS FURTHER SOUTH. PRECIP THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WILL INCREASE
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE NE ON TUESDAY...COLD AIR GETS WRAPPED AROUND BEHIND THE LOW INTO OUR CWA. WILL HAVE RAIN CHANGING OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR JUST SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT.

NWS Paducah: MAIN FORECAST ISSUES CENTER AROUND MASSIVE LATE WINTER STORM SYSTEM EVOLVING FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN PARTICULARS ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY IS LOW DUE TO DISTANCE OUT IN TIME AND MEDIUM RANGE MODEL DISCREPANCIES.

NWS South Bend, IN: BRINGING SFC LOW UP THROUGH OH VALLEY TUESDAY WHICH WOULD PLACE OUR AREA IN POTENTIAL SNOW EVENT. WILL BE INTERESTING TO MONITOR LATER FCST TRENDS AS MODELS HAVE TENDED TO WORK SOLN FURTHER WEST IN SUCCESSIVE RUNS WITH SIMILAR PATTERN THIS WINTER.

NWS Indy: THE SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK IS LOOKING MORE LINE A POSSIBLE HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION IN OUR NORTH.  THE PREVIOUS EUROPEAN HAD TAKEN THE SURFACE LOW EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...WHILE THE GFS MOVED IT TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY.  ON 12Z RUN BOTH EUROPEAN AND GFS ARE IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH NOW BRINING SURFACE LOW INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY TUESDAY.

Thursday early afternoon 2/28

Nice to see the sun shining. I don't care how cold it is (to a certain point) the sun always makes a big difference.

Snow is falling in Des Moines, IA with the latest clipper moving southeast. Moisture coming in tonight....there may be a period of snow before we go to rain overnight.
NWS Louisville: WILL START THE PRECIPITATION OFF AS
ALL SNOW. AS TEMPERATURES RISE A BIT OVERNIGHT WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE THE LIGHT SNOW OVER TO LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR EAST. ALONG AND EAST OF A FRANKFORT-LIBERTY LINE...INCLUDING LEXINGTON...WILL KEEP THE PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL SNOW. THOSE AREAS COULD SEE HALF AN INCH TO AN INCH OF ACCUMULATION BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND DAWN.

NWS Indy: AFT 06Z WILL KEEP IT SIMPLE WITH THE HIGH POPS. THE COLD AIR IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO SNOW AS INITIAL PRECIP TYPE...WITH A GRADUAL MIXING WITH RAIN
FROM SW TO NE AS WARM ADVECTION OCCURS DURING THE NIGHT. LOOKS LIKE PERHAPS NEAR AN INCH OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS NRN FA WHERE PRECIP WILL REMAIN SNOW THE LONGEST...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE.

Yesterday's GFS which had the 20 inch snow here has shifted a bit...it now has Evansville getting 15" or more. This storm system is still forecast all over the place with the models. If the GFS is right it will have to track NNE across far eastern KY or right along the west side of the mountains, for us to get a chance for an extreme snow. So there is still that chance we will hang on to. There are a couple of systems next week and then I think the pattern changes to warmer. So if we are going to get a decent snow whether it's 3 inches or 10 or whatever, next week appears to be our last chance this season.
Joe at Accu says he thinks the storm is going easst of the mountains. Thanks to all for their Henry updates. Right now he has snow developing in Arkansas to Tennessee and moving either to Kentucky and Indiana or to Virginia. WeatherAlarm has all rain for tonight..tomorrow and Monday and Tuesday.
SPC brings a 30% severe weather chance into southern KY on Monday.

Here is a pretty scene taken yesterday at Bradfordsville, KY by George E.

That's in eastern Marion Co.

About 1 1/2 inches are on the ground.

Wednesday late evening 2/27

Some comments about my earlier comments.
I didn't mean to send everybody in a panic but I had not seen the GFS forecast a snow like that before.
I have little or no confidence in that forecast at this point. It's too far out and it would have to be a "perfect storm" for this to all come together.
Am I ruling it out? No
JoeB. of AccuWeather last week was already talking about a storm system for next week. The analogs lined up to 1993. That was the "Storm of the Century". We didn't get much here but eastern KY got 2 feet of snow. If you have not heard of this storm before....click  here  Joe says there is a possibility for a superstorm next week. Henry isn't saying anything yet.
I am the only one even mentioning anything locally at this point. The 1993 storm was a go 2 to 3 days ahead of time so if we are still talking big storm for next week on Saturday, then you can get excited.
The GFS puts a 29.06 low into eastern Tennessee.
The Canadian has a 29.85 low.
The ECMWF has a 29.68 low across Georgia.
The JMA has a 29.50 low going to Chicago which would mean all rain here.

Wednesday early evening #2 2/27

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Thanks to Matt for pointing this out. I have been tied up at work and didn't get a chance to see the 18Z GFS until now.
IF THIS WORKS OUT...THE CITY WILL BE SHUT DOWN BY SNOW...
Click on any map for a larger view. For Monday night into Tuesday the GFS is predicting over 20 inches of snow for Louisville.
A word of caution...snow lovers...don't get your hopes up too much but this could be fun following this....especially if we aren't disappointed by another storm missing us.