Tuesday morning 1/29

We need your help. To everyone who reads this blog....please report any severe weather to us via this blog. You can post a comment or email me your storm reports to jbelski@wave3.com  Both areas will be monitored constantly starting late this afternoon. I don't care if it is just the garbage cans blowing down the street.....we would like to hear all wind reports with this system.

POSSIBLE SNOWSTORM LATER THIS WEEK...DETAILS AFTER SEVERE WEATHER RECAP

From the Storm Prediciton Center here are today's severe wether chances. On the left is tornado...wind on the right. SPC says: ONSET OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND FRONTAL UPLIFT
   SHOULD SUPPORT A SEPARATE BAND OF STORMS BY MID AFTN ALONG COLD
   FRONT FROM CNTRL IL SSW INTO SE MO AND AR.  WHILE THESE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE RAPIDLY INTO A SQUALL LINE...INTENSITY OF SHEAR AND PROXIMITY OF MAIN AXIS OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUSTAINED/SEMI-DISCRETE STRUCTURES.  THESE COULD YIELD BOWING SEGMENTS WITH HIGH WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE LINE SWEEPS E INTO PARTS OF IND/KY AND TN THIS EVENING.   Like I said yesterday....more sun=more severe. If it stays cloudy, we'll still see some severe but not as much as if the sun comes out.  NWS Louisville:  AS THE LINE MOVES EAST...IT WILL ENCOUNTER A SLIGHTLY MORE STABLE AIRMASS...SO SOME WEAKENING IS EXPECTED. SOME STORMS IN THE CONVECTIVE LINE MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WINDS
BEING THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.  NWS is playing down the threat a bit. The wind fields are very impressive and we will see gusts to 50 mph outside of storms so there will be some power outages tonight.

   
From the HPC....on the left is the 4 inch snow chance for THursday-Thursday night. On the right is the 8 inch chance. Louisville is in a slight risk for 4 inches of snow and southern Indiana is in a moderate risk. HPC says:PCPN WILL BE INTERACTING WITH SUFFICIENT COLD AIR FOR A
SWATH OF MDT TO POSSIBLY HVY SNOWFALL FRM PORTIONS OF SRN MI/NRN AR NEWD INTO AT LEAST SRN IL/IN AND NWRN OH THIS PD...AND COINCIDING WITH THE TRACK OF MID LVL LOW PRESSURE.

NWS Louisville: AT THIS TIME WE TRENDED THE TEMPS COOLER AND MENTIONED THE RAIN CHANGING TO A WINTERY MIX OR RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN KEPT THE MENTION OF SNOW OR RAIN AND SNOW AS IN THE CURRENT
FORECAST. THIS AGREES PRETTY WELL WITH OUR SURROUNDING FA`S TOO.

NWS Paducah: THE GFS WOULD ALSO INDICATE THAT THE PRECIP WOULD START THURSDAY MORNING. THE GFS THEN ROCKETS THE SFC LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST OHIO BY 12Z FRI...WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF SHOW A MUCH SLOWER PROGRESSION AND INDICATE THE LOW WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL KY AND TN. OF COURSE THE MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON PRECIPITATION TYPES. IT WILL BE
MESSY AND BE QUITE A DIFFERENCE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND EVEN EAST TO WEST ACROSS OUR AREA...PLUS THE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING OF THE PRECIP MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE. WHAT A MESS. THE THINKING RIGHT NOW IS TO ACTUALLY GO WITH THE ECMWF...WHICH IS COMPROMISE. LOOKING AT SOUNDINGS...IT STILL LOOKS LIKE AREAS FROM PADUCAH WEST WOULD BE ALL SNOW AND EAST OF PADUCAH IT WOULD BE RAIN.

NWS Indy: THE TREND HAS BEEN A SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH FCST PATH FOR THIS STORM. THE NAM WAS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER WHILE THE GFS WAS TOO FAST WHEN COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLES. ECMWF APPEARED TO BE A BETTER COMPROMISE WITH THE ENSEMBLES. THIS SUGGESTS A SFC LOW PATH THROUGH KY INTO SOUTHERN OH. AT THIS POINT...THIS SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND OR FREEZING RAIN TO PARTS OF THE AREA THU NIGHT THROUGH FRI. GIVEN THE TRENDS...THE CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK OF THIS STORM IS LOW AT THIS POINT

I just checked the NAM and GFS and they both seem a little warmer with more rain than snow here. More later.

 

Comments

[Brad A.]

The National Weather Service has placed Western KY in a moderate risk of severe weather. I live in Owensboro. Is this system setting up like the one back in early Jan., where we had multiple tornado warnings around the area? Also, will this drop much snow behind the front tonight?? Thanks for the work you do on the blog, it is excellent!

Brad...the storms are firing in the sunshine to our west. Yes there could be a few tornadoes. I think straight line winds may top 70 when it comes through....JB

[Jamie]

John:
the winds here in Gtown IN seem to be picking up. Our neighbors garbage can is in their back yard lol. I will keep you posted!

[Conor]

John, I'm from Louisville but go to Murray State. I was wondering if theres a chance the heavy snow will make it down here to Murray. It looks as if it is going further south and west.

Hey Conor....its looking better for your area. If the eastern trends continue....the heaviest may go east of you. At least there's a chance....JB