Belski's Blog

Thursday late evening 1/31

Before a winter update....in Florida there have been some problems with the radio warnings sytem so now some communities are offering severe weather alerts to your phone and blackberries....click  here

At Phoenix, the site of this year's super Bowl, it has been a cool week. Today's high was 60 and that's the warmest it has been all week. For Super Bowl Sunday they are expecting a slight chance for showers and a high of 63. That's over 65 degrees warmer for the Giants than their last game. For the Phoenix NWS...click  here

Interstate 90 in Washington state has been closed overnight at Snowqualmie Pass to due heavy snow and the threat of avalanches. The last week or so has seen a number of winter storms in the Pacific northwest.

In Buffalo yesterday they had the strong winds that blew chunks of ice from Lake Erie up onto the lakeside homes. Check out this video of the wild weather in Buffalo.... click  here

Earlier this week I posted about the intense snow and wind storm on Cape Cod, Massachusetts.  The remains of what experts think was a 19th-century schooner have been unveiled on a Cape Cod beach. The 50-foot keel and wooden ribs appeared on Wellfleet's Newcomb Hollow Beach on Tuesday, apparently exposed by waves. William Burke of the National Park Service estimates that the wreck dates from at least the late 1800s and is possibly older. Bill Quinn, who has written a number of books on Cape Cod maritime history, thinks the wreck could be the remains of the Logan, a 19th-century schooner refitted as a coal barge. He says the Logan went aground around 1920 and was abandoned after it couldn't be towed off the sandbar. There were more than 3,500 shipwrecks in the waters off Cape Cod between 1850 and 1980.

We can't get snow but guess who can......Hawaii

BIG ISLAND SUMMITS-
INCLUDING ...MAUNA LOA AND MAUNA KEA ABOVE 8000 FEET
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY...AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE

Also...Haleakala National Park on Maui has been closed due to flooding.

OK...we are getting lots of sleet and freezing rain reports from Carrollton to Scottsburg and Seymour to Bedford and Paoli down to Marengo. These area will continue with the frozen precip. overnight although the Carrollton area may go to rain. We will stay rain in Louisville. It looks there will be some snow on the backside of the system Friday morning. I will have more in the morning. I've got a speech early so will try to post by 10:30.

Thursday early evening 1/31

   Check out this video from WFIE-TV in Evansville of the TV station being evacuated during tornado coverage the other night..... click  here

By the way...Shively has now been added to areas that had a tornado the other night. An EF1 twister at 105 mph touched down at the corner of Plantation and Millers Lane and was on the ground for 1 mile. That's 4 tornado touch downs in Jefferson Co. and 2 more just outside of Louisville.

Thanks to everyone for their weather reports. Sleet will increase around the area this evening and then change to rain overnight. Let me know if it gets bad in your area.

Roads are becoming snow covered in Chicago (left) and St. Louis. Chicago is expecting around 6 inches and St. Louis around 8 inches. Depending on how much moisture is around when the atmosphere cools off again tomorrow morning will determine how much snow we will get...and it's not a lot. Either we get nothing or a little coating generally less than 1 inch.

Severe storms are possible next Tuesday as another strong cold front moves through.

Thursday mid-day 1/31

I just saw the latest NAM and GFS....no changes!  The Canadian has more sleet this evening then rain later tonight.....freezing rain if the temp drops low enough. All the other models also keep it mostly rain. I will be on a conference call with the NWS at 2:00. If there is anything new to report I will post it right away.

Branson, MO is on the left and Eureka Springs, AR is on the right. Check those maps for these locations....at 11 EST... Harrison, AR had heavy snow and 29 degrees and moderate snow was falling at Mountain Home, AR.  Heavy snow was falling at West Plains, MO in the south central part of the state.

From the NWS Louisville...for Paoli to Madison, IN...Winter Storm Warning: EXPECT ACCUMULATING FREEZING RAIN TO DEVELOP BY EVENING PERHAPS MIXING WITH RAIN AT TIMES AS TEMPERATURES HOVER NEAR FREEZING. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF TO ONE INCH ARE LIKELY IN MANY AREAS. IN ADDITION...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO FLURRIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

For the Louisville area...Winter Weather Advisory...EXPECT A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN DEVELOPING BY EVENING. WITH TEMPERATURES HOVERING NEAR OR A LITTLE ABOVE FREEZING...LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO A QUARTER OF AN INCH
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS. LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SNOW WILL MIX IN WITH THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO ONE INCH WILL BE
POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

Evansville area...Winter Storm Warning...PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT. IT WILL START AS LIGHT SNOW...LIGHT RAIN OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN... BUT MAY MIX WITH LIGHT SLEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...IS WHEN IT WILL CHANGE TO A MORE WINTRY MIX OF SNOW AND ICE. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE CLOSE TO 1/4 INCH BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...MAKING STORM TOTAL SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE...WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

Bedford, IN to North Vernon...Winter Storm Warning... A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET WILL DEVELOP THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. AFTER MIDNIGHT...A MIXTURE OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL OCCUR. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF ONE QUARTER TO ON HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A VINCENNES TO BLOOMINGTON TO SHELBYVILLE LINE. A MIXTURE OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL GRADUALLY
CHANGE BACK TO SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TOTAL SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE

Thursday morning 1/31

From LG&E... Updated numbers as of 7:30 a.m., January 31:

• LG&E currently has 6,000 customers without power across its service territory. At the height of the storm, 32,000 were without power.
  
• All KU storm customers have been restored.

A daylight assessment on Wednesday morning indicated that the majority of customers will be restored by Thursday afternoon. Crews are working to restore power as quickly and as safely as possible.

From the HPC the 4 inch snow risk is on the left so the track is unchanged. Heavy snows of 6 to 12 inches arer expected from southern Missouri to northern Indiana. On the right is the risk area for 1/4 inch of ice and much of southern Indiana is under a high risk. Winter Storm Warnings are out for Paoli to salem to Scottsburg to Madison. A Winter Weather Advisory is out for the Louisville area. Nothing east or south. If it gets bad enough tonight, southern Indiana may be upgraded to an ice storm warning. Temps are the key and a shift of 25 miles south and east of the track of the storm today could make the icing much worse in Louisville. An inch of snow and sleet has fallen at Hopkinsville, KY this morning. That area is weakening as it crosses southern KY.

Here are the forecasts.....
KENTUCKY
Louisville: snow: up to 2" ice: up to 1/4 inch
east and south of Louisville: not much ice  less than 1 inch of snow
New Albany...Jeffersonville: snow: up to 2"   ice: up to 1/4"
Bedford, KY...Carrollton...LaGrange: snow 1 inch   ice: 1/10 to 1/4 inch
Paducah: snow: 1 to 3 inches   ice: 1/4 inch
INDIANA
Paoli...Salem...Scottsburg...Madison: snow: 2 inches   ice: 1/2 to 1 inch
Bedford, IN...Seymour...N. Vernon:  snow: 2-5 inches   ice: 1/4 to 1/2 inch
Indianapolis: snow: 4 to 6  ice: less than 1/4 inch
Lafayette:  snow: 8-9 inches
Fort Wayne: snow: 6 to 10 inches
South Bend: snow: 7 to 14 inches
Evansville: snow: 1-4 inches  ice: 1/4 to 1/2 inch
ILLINOIS:
Champaign: snow: 7 to 11 inches
Mt. Vernon: snow: 4 to 8 inches
MISSOURI
Cape Girardeau: snow: 4 to 8 inches
St. Louis: snow: 5 to 9 inches
Farmington: (south of STL) snow: 9 to 11 inches

Wednesday late evening 1/30

This is what Venus and Jupiter looked like this morning before sunrise. Click on the photo for a larger view. The 2 planets will be very close together in the morning. Look southeast....you can't miss it. Hopefully the clouds will hold off. Thanks for the photo Don.

The models are unchanged on the winter storm although the GFS really wraps the storm up as it tracks from Louisville to Muncie Friday morning so there could be some wrap around snow. AccuWeather is now up to 0.1 inches of snow for us...lol and Weather Channel has snow showers.

HPC has the 4 inch snow risk all to the north although they do bring a slight risk for 1/4 inch of ice in for Thursday night. If there is any big change in the morning, I will post it. I know a lot of you want a change to bring some snow in....I am as frustrated as you are. Hang in there....it's a stormy pattern and strange things can happen.

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These maps show the Jefferson Co. tornado touch downs since 1830. The NWS has a great web site that has this information for each county..... click here

The Tuesday night storm had 3 touchdowns in Louisville of EF-1 intensity at 95 mph. U of L, St. Matthews and Anchorage all had tornado damage.

Wednesday mid evening 1/30

Tornado confirmed at U of L and St. Matthews.
A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DAMAGE SURVEY CONDUCTED IN THE LOUISVILLE
METRO AREA TODAY CONFIRMED THAT A WEAK TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN WITHIN
THE METRO AREA JUST AFTER 8 PM EST TUESDAY JANUARY 29 2008.
THE TORNADO WAS EMBEDDED IN A FAST MOVING SQUALL LINE THAT RACED
ACROSS THE METRO AREA AT 60 MPH. STRAIGHT LINE WINDS OF 60 TO 90 MPH
CAUSED EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES ELSEWHERE THROUGHOUT
THE METRO...EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO OLDHAM COUNTY.
THE INITIAL TOUCHDOWN OCCURRED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE UNIVERSITY OF
LOUISVILLE CAMPUS...CAUSING WINDOW DAMAGE TO A RESIDENCE HALL AND
OTHER UNIVERSITY BUILDINGS...AS WELL AS SEVERAL VEHICLES.  THE
TORNADO THEN REMAINED ALOFT FOR 7 3/4 MILES BEFORE TOUCHING DOWN
AGAIN ALONG SHELBYVILLE ROAD JUST WEST OF THE WATTERSON EXPRESSWAY.
IT THEN LIFTED AGAIN BEFORE TOUCHING DOWN A FINAL TIME IN THE
ANCHORAGE AREA...CAUSING EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE.  STRAIGHT LINE WINDS
ALONG THIS PATHLINE ALSO DOWNED NUMEROUS TREES AND DESTROYED AT
LEAST ONE OUT BUILDING.
TORNADO RATING: EF-1
MAX WIND SPEED: 95 MPH
PATH LENGTH   : 3 BRIEF TOUCHDOWNS TOTALING LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE
ON THE GROUND...ALONG A TOTAL PATH OF 12 1/4 MILES.
PATH WIDTH    : 100 YARDS
INJURIES      : NONE KNOWN
FATALITIES    : NONE
TIME OF INITIAL TOUCHDOWN: 802 PM EST
TIME OF FINAL DISSIPATION: 813 PM EST
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE IN PEEWEE VALLEY IN OLDHAM COUNTY WAS
DETERMINED TO HAVE BEEN CAUSED BY STRAIGHT LINE WINDS ESTIMATED AT
85 MPH.

Wednesday early evening 1/30

The NWS has put the winds for the St. Matthews storm at 90mph. Most of the damage is straight line winds...there may have been a small tornado or two. They are still studying the debris patterns.

DAMAGE REPORT FROM WASHINGTON AND CLARK COUNTIES IN SOUTHERN INDIANA

WASHINGTON COUNTY

DAMAGE LOCATION...... FROM BECKS MILL TO 1 MILE NORTHEAST OF SOUTH BOSTON
LENGTH OF DAMAGE..... 10 MILES
WIDTH OF DAMAGE...... 1 MILE
WINDS................ 75 TO 85 WITH GUSTS TO 100 MPH
TORNADO.............. A COUPLE OF EF1,S WITHIN MENTIONED DAMAGE AREA
                      WITH WINDS OF 90 TO 100 MPH. TORNADO ON THE
                      GROUND FOR 1 MILE WITH A WIDHT OF 200 YARDS.


CLARK COUNTY

DAMAGE LOCATION.....  1/2 MILE NORTH OF HENRYVILLE TO 1 MILE EAST OF
                      UNDERWOOD
LENGTH OF DAMAGE....  2 MILES
WIDTH OF DAMAGE.....  1/2 MILE
WINDS...............  60 TO 70 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 90 MPH
TORNADO.............  EF1 3/4 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HENRYVILLE.
                      ON THE GROUND FOR 100 YARDS.

More storm photos. You can see the hole in the wall caused by flying debris. On the right....a utility pole was lifted up by the winds and dropped through the roof. Click on any photo for a larger view.

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There were a number of cars damaged by flying debris. THis car was hit so hard it triggered the air bags.

On the right a view of one of the many trees down in St. Matthews.

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  As far as the snow....I just checked the latest models and no change. This is mainly a rain-maker for us possibly starting as a mix and ending as some light snow. The heaviest snow band will be from St. Louis to South Bend, IN. There could even be some thunder snow in the red shaded area to our north.

One thing I am watching for next week is another chance for storms on Tuesday. Not that this will be severe...we'll keep an eye on it.

Wednesday mid-day 1/30

You can get a list of some of the damage reports from the NWS here...Louisville NWS...click  here and Indianapolis NWS... click  here

A number of cars around Louisville were damaged from flying debris in last night's storms. Winds up to 80 mph hit the area. Here's a brief recap from our news desk... click here

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On the left is a shot of the tornado that overturned a trailer near Evansville and killed 2 people yesterday afternoon. For the complete story..... click here

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The wind damage wasn't as bad in central Indiana as it was here but there were still a number of reports. A large part of the roof of the court house at Martinsville blew off. A trailer overturned near North Vernon. No confirmation of a tornado.  For more on central Indiana... click here

In Lexington, 125 people have been evacuated from an apartment complex after untility poles snapped and there was no electricity in the frigid temperatures.

In Louisville there were still 18,000 homes with no power this morning. I can remember back in the the 1980s we had one of those days when the temperature remained near zero. We lost our power for about 4 hours and the temperature in the house dropped to about 45 degrees. Here is the latest from LG&E...

Updated numbers as of 8:30 a.m., January 30:

• LG&E currently has 18,000 customers without power across its service territory. At the height of the storm, 32,000 were without power.
• KU currently has 4,200 customers without power across its service territory.

Throughout Tuesday evening and overnight, high winds continued to create damage across the service territory. A daylight assessment on Wednesday morning indicated that the majority of customers will be restored by Thursday afternoon. Crews are working to restore power as quickly and as safely as possible

It's looking like a near miss on the winter storm. On the left is the GFS at 1AM on Friday. The low is near Hopkinsville and the freezing line at 5,000 feet is north of us. The NAM on the right for the same time has the freezing line a little further south but still a rain situation. We may start as some snow then go to rain and finish with a little snow early Friday.

NWS Louisville: AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE PCPN EVENT...THE MODEL ECMWF...NAM
AND GFS ARE TRENDING WARMER. SO MUCH SO...THAT THE LATEST HPC SNOW
FORECASTS SHIFT THE MEASURABLE SNOW NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER AND THEN
MOSTLY NORTH OF OUR FA. WE COULD EVEN HAVE SOME FREEZING RAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AS HPC WINTER FCSTS INDICATE. WE AGREE.

NWS Paducah:  FOR WINTER STORM WATCH THERE (SEMO/SIL) MAINLY NORTH OF CROWLEYSRIDGE. EWARD EXTENT MUCH MORE DIFFICULT BUT FOLLOWED HPC LEAD AND
THRU COLLAB EFFORTS DREW THE LINE FROM ROUGHLY THE MO BOOTHEEL TO THE WABASH RIVER. THIS IS NOT TO DISCOUNT LIGHT ACCUMS OF SNOW/ICE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST...IN FACT DO EXPECT SOME THERE BY FRI AM...BUT AMOUNTS AT LEAST FOR NOW ARE LOOKING TO BE MORE IN THE ADVISORY RANGE. MEANWHILE AMOUNTS IN WATCH AREA GIVEN HPC QPF COULD WELL HIT INTO 4-8" RANGE FOR SNOW.

NWS Indy: this is for Bedford...Seymour...North Vernon: A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MIXTURE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WHILE GRADUALLY BECOMING ALL SNOW BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH OF ICE DUE TO FREEZING RAIN ALONG WITH
NEW SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO 5 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

Yesterday we were in the moderate risk (green line) for 4 inches of snow. That has now shifted to the northwest. From the HPC, on the left is the 4 inch snow...on the right is the risk area for 8 inches.....

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  and look at the slight risk for 12 inches in Missouri and Illinois. Hello to our regular blog readers Larry in Springfield, IL and Jim in St. Louis.....we are very jealous right now as our mostly snowless winter continues.

NWS St. Louis:  H700 LO TRACKS THRU SERN MO AND SWRN IL...JUST S AND E OF THE STL METRO AREA...AND THIS IS WHERE THE HEAVY SNOW TRACK TYPICALLY FOLLOWS. THIS AREA WILL BE UNDER A VERY FAVORABLE AREA FOR BANDED SNOW DEVELOPMENT...AND WITH P-TYPES EXPECTED TO BE
ALL SNOW...AS AREAS N OF THE H700 TRACK RARELY IF EVER ARE AFFECTED BY WARM AIR WEDGES...SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. A REASONABLE CONFIDENCE ALSO EXTENDS TO THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE STL METRO AREA WHERE 6 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED. LESSER CONFIDENCE EXTENDS FURTHER NWWD... ALL OF THE AVAILABLE FORECAST DATA IS SUGGESTING THAT HEAVY SNOW
IS VERY LIKELY WITH THE STORM FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...WITH SNOWFALLS WELL OVER 6 INCHES POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 44 IN MISSOURI...AND ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN ILLINOIS.

Storm fatalities

This information in just after midnight. A trailer was flipped over by high winds around 8:00 on Brownstown Rd. north of Henryville in northern Clark Co. The person inside the trailer was transported to Scott Co. Hospital where she died. A possible tornado was sighted at the 22 mile marker on interstate 65 and a transformer blowing was seen near the location of this trailer. Debris was seen in the air as the possible tornado crossed the interstate. Other possible tornado reports were received from northern Clark Co.

Highs winds and rain may have caused a car to cross the center line of Grant Line Rd. at Chapel Lane in Floyd Co. and crash head on into another vehicle.  One person was killed in the crash.

Tuesday late evening 1/29

Thanks to all who emailed and phoned in damage reports. I'm not going to go over everything here but every county had some damage. Here's some of the worst...
Louisville: several homes with trees on them
St. Matthews: Shelbyville Road Plaza to the Mall St. Matthews...windows blown out. Damage to buildings...vehicles damaged.
St. Matthews: roof blown off the American Legion building
Louisville: a number of trees down in Seneca and Cherokee Parks
Louisville: wind damage at U of L
Louisville: wind damage along Dixie Hwy...roof on road just off Dixie
Anchorage: a number of trees down...some onto houses
Campbellsville, KY: many trees down
Bardstown area: many trees down
Cave City, KY: 2 walls in an apartment complex collapsed
Pewee Valley: Little Colonel Playhouse destroyed
Floyd Co., IN: 2 separate vehicle accidents during the storm...2 dead
Near Evansville: tree on a trailer...2 dead
Henryville to Nabb in Clark Co.: possible tornado, debris on interstate 65 at mile marker 22...barn destroyed....several other buildings damaged
Martinsville, IN: large part of the county courthouse roof gone
Kroger Distribution Center: semi blown over
38,000 LG&E customers without power...10,000 more in southern Indiana

This is a shot of the semi at Kroger.

This picture is from Scottsburg, IN. The barbeque grill was lifted off the porch and blown out into the yard.

When daylight comes we will see how extensive the tree damage is in the parks.

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As far as Thursday night's snow. It looks like it will be rain changing to snow early Friday with some accumulation then. Areas that get all snow will get 6 inches. Right now that doesn't look like us but there is still a chance.