Belski's Blog

Monday late evening 12/31

Tuesday afternoon there will be an outdoor NHL hockey in Buffalo. About 75,000 fans are expected to attend. For the latest from Buffalo....click  here

Buffalo NWS forecast..... NEW YEARS DAY...SNOW. ACCUMULATION 2 TO 4 INCHES. NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 30S.

For Buffalo radar....click  here

Here is HPC's forecast of at least 4 inches of snow.

Winds this evening in Louisville have gusted to around 50 mph. There are 1,000 homes without power in Louisville. Indiana outages are back down to 20 from 200 earlier. Most of those were around Seymour.

Through 10:00 the rain total for today is at .06   That leaves us .01 below normal for the year.

That's it for now. I will be posting on Tuesday. We'll watch for the snow shower development and look ahead to see if we can get something going for snow late next week.

HAPPY NEW YEAR....

Monday evening 12/31

Here is the scene in Chicago where the snow is falling but the roads are OK for now. They are expecting 2-4 inches.

Winds are gusting to 40 in St. Louis right now. We should see gusts to 40 mph around midnight.

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There will be enough moisture off the lakes to produce locally heavy snow showers Tuesday into early Wednesday. Accumulations on Tuesday will be 1/2 inch or less. Tuesday night will have 1 inch or less.

The warm weather MAY come to an end by the end of next week. Originally it looked like it was here to stay for awhile. Now we are getting indications of colder weather by mid-month.

HAPPY NEW YEAR......

Monday early afternoon 12/31

Another winter storm to our north.....NWS Chicago: WE EXPECT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OS SNOW NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. WE EXPECT LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW IN THE REGION FROM ROCKFORD THROUGH HARVARD AND TO WAUKEGAN ILLINOIS.

NWS northern Indiana for South Bend:  A WINTER STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT ALLOWING FOR PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOWFALL WILL OVERSPREAD THE WATCH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH EXPECTED ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 9 INCHES BY TUESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST EARLY TUESDAY AND WILL PROMOTE BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW THROUGH THE DAY.

NWS Detroit:  SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN...POSSIBLY BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE BY NOON TUESDAY IN THE WATCH AREA....WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF HEAVY SNOW ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE M59 CORRIDOR WHERE THE POTENTIAL OF 8 INCHES OR GREATER EXISTS.  Joe B. of AccuWeather is predicting 12-18 inches and blizzard conditions for Detroit.

2007 weather numbers.....High 105..... Low 5  Rain averages out at normal

Top local weather event of the year: THE HEAT....after June and most of July it was a pretty quiet summer and then the heat wave hit. August was the hottest month in the city's history with an average high of 97 degrees. Most summers the temperature never reaches 97 degrees and this was the average for the entire month. There were 5 100 degree days. The period June through August averaged out as the second hottest summer in Louisville ever. The heat continued into September. Most years we have one day in the 90s during September. This year it was 12 days with mid 90s as late as the 25th. There were 3 days in October in the 90s. See the other top events on previous posts.

Sunday evening 12/30

I don't ever want to hear anybody from Boston complain about the lack of snow. They need one inch through tomorrow to break their December snow record of 27 inches. Here is their forecast from the NWS:  THIS WINTER STORM WARNING INCLUDES THE AREA FROM NORTHWEST RHODE ISLAND INTO METRO BOSTON AND THE NORTH SHORE. SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. SNOW AND SLEET HAS STARTED IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT AND WILL BEGIN BY
830 OR 9 PM IN NORTHERN RHODE ISLAND AS WELL AS INTERIOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS. MOST OF THE SNOW WILL FALL FROM 1 AM TO 7 AM...WHEN SNOWFALL RATES MAY REACH 1 INCH PER HOUR AT TIMES

It turns out 2007 will not go down as the driest year on record for the drought-stricken Atlanta area, thanks to Sunday showers that capped four consecutive days of rain..... click  here

From Salt Lake City....Another storm hits the Wasatch Front. Big and Little Cottonwood canyons closed down for a time today as more snow blanketed parts of northern Utah......click here

From Washington state... Olympic National Park rangers on Sunday afternoon found a 53-year-old Port Townsend man who got lost while cross-country skiing in snowy conditions in the Hurricane Ridge area Saturday night......click  here

From Denver: Gusty winds over the mountains, in the foothills, and on the west side of the metro area will cause blowing snow and limited visibility through Monday morning ...click  here

From Kansas City: It's ben a rough winter so far with lota of snow and ice and Kansas City is running out of funds and salt....click  here

Countdown for the top local weather events of the year.

See the entire countdown so far at John Belski's Blog at here at wave3.com

2) This event will tie for second with our next event. After 7 days in the 80s and 12 days in the 70s during March into early April, a disastrous freeze hit much of the region the second week of April. In Louisville temperatures were below freezing 6 days in a row bottoming out at 25 degrees at the airport. The suburbs and countryside dropped to the teens for 2 nights. Many crops and plants were frozen. The Japanese maple trees never did recover this year. Wheat crops were destroyed as were peaches among others. In Kentucky and Indiana alone losses were in the tens of millions of dollars

2) The drought. Up through Derby Day rainfall was about average for the year. From mid-May into early October rainfall was about 10 inches below normal in Louisville and up to 15+ below normal over southern Kentucky. Agricultural losses were in the millions of dollars. At one point almost all of Kentucky was in extreme drought conditions. We will still see the effects of the drought in the spring because some trees will not leaf out after too much drought and heat damage last summer.

 

Saturday early evening 12/29

Countdown for the top local weather events of the year...
5) October rains. After the extreme drought most of the summer into early October, the middle of the month saw several days of rain with up to 10 inches in some locations. The rain total for Louisville for the month was 8.86" which was a record for the month. The ground was so dry there never was any flooding. The ground just soaked it up. Louisville has never gone from such extreme dry weather to wet in such a short time.

4) October tornado outbreak....On October 18, there were 9 tornado touchdowns across our area. The strongest tornado was near Charlestown, IN in Clark Co. with winds topping out at 138 mph....an EF-3 tornado. This hit a mainly rural area but did severely damage about 10 homes along with some farm buildings. It was the second strongest tornado in Indiana this year. It was the strongest October tornado ever around the Louisville area. Many people saw the funnel cloud before this tornado touched down as it moved across Floyd and Clark counties. There was an EF-0 tornado in the city of Louisville. We tracked this live on TV with our tower cam. You could see the swirling clouds go right over downtown and then the tornado touched down in the Clifton area. The Kroger on Brownsboro Road was damaged. There were 22 tornado warnings that evening for our TV coverage area. This total number of warnings has not happened before in our area. There was an EF-0 tornado in Bullitt Co. with winds of 80 mph and damage to several homes.

2) This event will tie for second with our next event. After 7 days in the 80s and 12 days in the 70s during March into early April, a disastrous freeze hit much of the region the second week of April. In Louisville temperatures were below freezing 6 days in a row bottoming out at 25 degrees at the airport. The suburbs and countryside dropped to the teens for 2 nights. Many crops and plants were frozen. The Japanese maple trees never did recover this year. Wheat crops were destroyed as were peaches among others. In Kentucky and Indiana alone losses were in the tens of millions of dollars.

The other number 2 event of the year will be posted on Sunday.

Only 2 days lower than 40 degrees (for highs) over the next 14 days.

Saturday afternoon 12/29

Weather question today: What has been Louisville's lowest temp so far the season? The anwer at the end of the post.

Here comes the cold and a little snow. On the left is the GFS for Tuesday 7 PM showing the 6 hour precip (light). It's snow shower activity and sometimes you can get those heavy snow squalls that don't last long but can put a few tenths of an inch of snow down in a short time. With temps in the 20s that means some slick roads for Tuesday into Tuesday night. The map on the right (click on it for a larger view) shows the snow shower trajectory for Wednesday morning running from NW Indiana down to Cincinnati. From the NWS in northern Indiana.... WINDS ON TUESDAY MAY APPROACH SUSTAINED LEVELS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

Some of the ski resorts in Colorado have had over 100 inches of snow this month. A number of cities in Minnesota and Wisconsin are near their December snow records. In northern Canada it is the coldest start to winter in decades. So there is a lot of winter weather out there....just not here, yet.

The extreme drought continues from Alabama into North Carolina. Look at the rainfall map for Sunday. Welcome heavy rains from south Alabama to Atlanta to Charlotte. It won't end the drought but it will bring lake levels back up a few inches.

Weather answer: 22 degrees... we should see two nights in the teens this upcoming week.

I will in at work today so the new 14 day will be posted here later on.

Friday late afternoon 12/28

Thanks to John from the Kentuckiana Astronomical Society for this photo of an eagle living in the Louisville area. So I was wondering, where do bald eagles live? ....Bald eagles reside in North America, from Alaska and Canada to northern Mexico near swamps, lakes, oceans and rivers where there are lots of fish, clean waters, and tall trees for nesting and roosting. They live strictly in North America and every state except for Hawaii. The northwest coast of North America is where the flourish most, partly because of the salmondead or dying fish are an important part of their food supply. Thousands live in Alaska and other parts of the Pacific Northwest, the Great Lakes region, and Chesapeake Bay. They also inhabit Florida and along Atlantic coastline. They thrive in quiet isolation

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The heavy snow is ending in Illinois and Wisconsin and has shifted to Michigan. This is the view of the Lake Michigan waterfront at Muskegon, MI.

Some areas are reporting 1/4 mile visibility.

The snow is increasing at Grand Rapids where they are expecting 5 to 7 inches.

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Countdown for the top local weather events of the year...
5) October rains. After the extreme drought most of the summer into early October, the middle of the month saw several days of rain with up to 10 inches in some locations. The rain total for Louisville for the month was 8.86" which was a record for the month. The ground was so dry there never was any flooding. The ground just soaked it up. Louisville has never gone from such extreme dry weather to wet in such a short time.

4) October tornado outbreak....On October 18, there were 9 tornado touchdowns across our area. The strongest tornado was near Charlestown, IN in Clark Co. with winds topping out at 138 mph....an EF-3 tornado. This hit a mainly rural area but did severely damage about 10 homes along with some farm buildings. It was the second strongest tornado in Indiana this year. It was the strongest October tornado ever around the Louisville area. Many people saw the funnel cloud before this tornado touched down as it moved across Floyd and Clark counties. There was an EF-0 tornado in the city of Louisville. We tracked this live on TV with our tower cam. You could see the swirling clouds go right over downtown and then the tornado touched down in the Clifton area. The Kroger on Brownsboro Road was damaged. There were 22 tornado warnings that evening for our TV coverage area. This total number of warnings has not happened before in our area. There was an EF-0 tornado in Bullitt Co. with winds of 80 mph and damage to several homes.

I will post number 3 tomorrow.

After the cold snap next week a big time warm up is on the way with a chance for 60 degrees by January 7.

Friday early afternoon 12/28

The rain is just about over. We have had .26" so far through 12:00. Hopefully the roads will dry up by the evening rush hour. We still need .24" for this to be the fifth wettest December. Also we need just a bit more rain to guarantee that the rain total will finish above normal for the year which would be an amazing feat considering how bad the drought was earlier in the year.

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The cold is coming. This is the GFS for 7 PM Tuesday. The 5,000 temp is forecast at colder than -10C or colder than 14F. The light green area is the 6 hour precip. That's a light snow accumulation due to snow showers. It would not surprise me to see up to 1 inch in snow showers Monday night into early Wednesday.

Accuweather now in the 20s for Tuesday and 19 for Wednesday which is a 30 degree drop from earlier in the week. The Weather Channel now has one day in the 20s when originally they said the coldest would be mid 40s. All aboard the Polar Express.

Chicago is on the left and Milwaukee is on the right. Moderate snow in Chicago now and they are expecting 2-4 with 6 inches near the Wisconsin border. Milwaukee and Madison 4-6 and Green Bay 3-5. There are pockets of heavy snow with 1/4 mile visibility in northern Illinois at this time.

I just found this shot from Madison, WI. The Beltline Highway is now snow covered, they have had about 3 inches so far.

Thursday late evening 12/27

I am showing these numbers on the news tonight...temps so far this month in Louisville: 17 days above normal... 8 days below normal... 2 days of normal. In the next 30 days I am expecting around 23 days of above normal temps. Any cold snaps will only last a couple of days. The cold spell for Tuesday and Wednesday still looks pretty cold to me. I am keeping the 20s for highs in the forecast.

The latest NAM has some light snow here on Sunday with a dusting possible. The new Euro won't be out until after midnight. It has been trending a little further north with the precip. on Sunday. Still nothing showing up with the main front Monday night.

Next week the cold last 3 days. There may be another short cold spell around Jan. 11 and 12.

Thursday late afternoon 12/27

Weather question of the day: How many states have had snow so far this season?....meaning season in general terms....since October. The answer at the end of this post.

For over a week I have calling for 2 days in the 20s around New Years. Earlier this week I had 28 for next Tuesday and 28 for Wednesday. AccuWeather had upper 40s for both days as did The Weather Channel. Well....now AccuWeather is down to 35 and 29....TWC is down to 31 and 29. So what was a 20 degree difference in forecasts earlier in the week is now down to 3 to 7 degrees and I haven't budged.

With the cold air coming in, sometimes you can get a storm to develop along the leading edge of the chill. The models are trying to develop something for Sunday into Monday. Right now it is all down south and out east but remember, the trend all winter has been for these systems to have a further north track as time goes on. As far as the current storm coming out of the Rockies.....

On the left is interstate 70 in eastern Colorado and on the right is interstate 80 in western Nebraska. There are a number of heavy snow warnings and snow advisories from Colorado to Michigan. North of us the forecast must a an accumulation of more than 6 inches to be called a Winter Storm Warning. For example, eastern Iowa is predicting 3 to 6 inches and they only have a Snow Advisory. Here that would be a warning.

This photo is from Portland, OR. More snow today. Earlier this week they had their forst White Christmas since 1990.

Also, it is snowing in Seattle again. For more info....click  here

Answer to the weather question....all 50 states have had snow.