Belski's Blog

Friday late afternoon 11/30

There have been some flash flood warnings in the Los Angeles area today. Orange County authorities urged hundreds of people living in the steep-slope areas of Modjeska and Williams canyons to evacuate their homes due to the potential of rain-caused debris flows in the area scarred by last month's Santiago wildfire. For more details....click  here

Here is Phoenix where the rain has begun and will continue off and on through tomorrow.

This is part of the storm system that will bring widespread snow and ice to the Plains and upper midwest. There are some pretty wild forecasts out there. Here are just a few.....

NWS for much of Nebraska including Omaha.... FREEZING RAIN IS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ARE LIKELY BY SATURDAY EVENING. LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR. TRAVEL ON UNTREATED ROADS COULD BECOME VERY DANGEROUS OR IMPOSSIBLE SATURDAY. HEAVY ICE ACCUMULATIONS CAN BRING DOWN POWER LINES.

NWS Des Moines.... SIGNIFICANT ICING WILL CREATE VERY HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION...A SOUTHEAST WIND GUSTING
OVER 30 MPH MAY DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES THAT ARE WEIGHED
DOWN BY ICE.

NWS Minneapolis.... SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 6 INCHES ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN MINNESOTA NEAR THE IOWA
BORDER...ALONG WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET. AROUND 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FROM REDWOOD FALLS THROUGH THE TWIN CITIES TO EAU CLAIRE. ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM WILLMAR THROUGH MORA AND CAMBRIDGE...ON EAST TO LADYSMITH. AROUND 9 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE MORRIS...ALEXANDRIA AND LITTLE FALLS AREAS.

NWS Duluth, MN..... THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 8 TO 16 INCHES OF SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE 12 TO 16 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE SNOW...HEAVY AT TIMES...COMBINED WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 MPH COULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF THE SNOW. VISIBILITIES MAY ALSO BE REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES IN THE HEAVIER SNOW.

Next week doesn't look too bad. We continue to get mixed signals about week 2. There are some indications of some very cold air and snow??? building in..... I'm not jumping on the bandwagon yet.

Friday early afternoon 11/30

This Pinpoint Doppler Radar from KNBC-TV in Los Angeles. The rainy season in southern California goes from fall to late spring. You might remember that last year only about 3 inches of rain fell and this resulted in a pretty severe fire season. It has been raining all morning in LA and now there is the threat for some localized flooding. Phoenix is expecting a couple of inches of rain for today and tomorrow.

This is the same storm that will hit the nation's mid-section this weekend.

Click on the map for a larger view. The large area of blue is a winter storm watch which includes Omaha, Des Moines, Minneapolis, Chicago, Milwaukee and Detroit. Purple areas in Kansas and Missouri are freezing rain advisories and ice storm warnings. The ice storm warning includes Hannibal, MO over to St. Joseph, MO.

Although there is no severe weather risk area listed for the weekend, here is a statement from the SPC about Sunday.....THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST A LOW-TOPPED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE LINE APPEARS POSSIBLE EARLY SUNDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN MISSOURI/CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...WHICH MAY  CONTINUE EASTWARD WITHIN 50+ KT MEAN CLOUD BEARING LAYER FLOW ...THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY BY EARLY SUNDAY EVENING.  THIS COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY SPORADIC DAMAGING SURFACE WIND GUSTS.

Today is the last day of hurricane seaason and there is a controversy about some storms this season that maybe should not have been given names because they weren't strong enough. This is big because insurance companies set their rates by how many named storms there are. For the complete story......click here

I took this photo today as a flock of geese were heading south. Low flying geese when migrating is a sign of a mild winter coming up. Every flock I have seen this season has been flying fairly low.

By the way, my weather folklore book is now sold out. Thanks to everybody who bought one. There probably will not be another printing. 

Thursday late evening 11/29

Upsetting news tonight in local radio. Word is out that Joe Elliott of WHAS radio has been let go. Although there has been no official word from the owner of the station, Clear Channel, a number of people are telling us that Joe has been laid off. I have always felt that Joe had an excellent show. He would present both sides of the story. There were a wide a wide variety of topics. Most important, Joe had a style that was not abrasive like so many talk show hosts. He was very easy to listen to. You felt like he was your friend. His expertise will be missed.
This is just another case of a corporate owner cutting the budget on the local level. The listeners are the losers here because many of Joe's topics were of a local interest. It's not just talk radio going through this. Most music stations in Louisville have live announcers only during morning and afternoon drive times. A few will have a live announcer at other times but most are voice tracked....taped shows.

Now this has not been confirmed but we hear the Michael Savage syndicated show will be Joe's replacement in that time slot. Click  here

If you would like to contact WHAS radio..... click here

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The first decent rain of the season for the Phoenix area is coming up the next couple of days..... FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM FRIDAY TO 5 AM MST SATURDAY...
REST OF TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LOWS 50 TO 60.  CHANCE OF SHOWERS 30 PERCENT. FRIDAY...CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING...THEN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS 64 TO 69.  CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN 90 PERCENT. FRIDAY NIGHT...SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. LOWS 52 TO 62.  CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN 90 PERCENT.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. BREEZY. HIGHS 63 TO 68.

Here's another local weather site you can check on. It's from Patrick Sumner of Columbus East High School in Indiana. He does weather forecasting and more for southern Indiana on this site....click  here

Thursday late afternoon 11/28

OK...snow lovers. We are not getting the snow but read some of these statements from up north....

NWS Duluth, MN..THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR 8 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH COULD CAUSE CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND BLOWING OF THE SNOW.

NWS Minneapolis...THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON SATURDAY MORNING...AND BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A NEW ULM TO RED WING LINE. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING SIX INCHES APPEAR POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN

NWS Milwaukee....MAJOR SNOW AND ICE STORM EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
PRECIPITATION WILL START AS SNOW SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN CHANGE TO SLEET AND EVENTUALLY FREEZING RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIGNIFICANT GLAZING IS POSSIBLE ON TOP OF SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW...PERHAPS EXCEEDING ONE HALF INCH OF ICE

NWS Omaha.... A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOUTHWEST IOWA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. AS WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH...SURFACE TEMPERATURES OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF SOUTHWEST IOWA ARE LIKELY TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING TURNING THE PRECIPITATION OVER TO JUST RAIN. AREAS FARTHER NORTH...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THIS MAY LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW OR FREEZING RAIN BY SATURDAY EVENING.

Thursday early afternoon 11/29

Our snow cam of the day is in downtown Grand Rapids, Michigan where they are getting some lake effect today.

HPC has really backed off the rain totals for Sunday. This storm is not as big as the models originally predicted. There is still a lot of uncertaintity as to who will get the heaviest snowfall.

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The day 3 heavy snow forecast (4" +) from the HPC has a high risk over Minneapolis to Green Bay. Here's what the NWS says.... PARTS OF THE REGION ARE PROBABLY LOOKING AT WARNING CRITERIA SNOWS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS COULD BE EVEN MORE ENHANCED IF THUNDERSNOW OCCURS...WHICH IS LOOKING POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...WHERE SUB ZERO 850 MB LIFTED INDICES ARE PROGGED. IF THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT...IT IS LIKELY THAT A WINTER STORM
WATCH WILL BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE AREA IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...... that was from Minneapolis, this next one is from LaCrosse, WI...COULD BE QUITE THE STORM FOR THE WEEKEND. COLDER SOLUTIONS COULD GENERATE SNOWFALLS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES PARTS OF THE AREA...WHILE THE WARMER SOLUTION COULD CHANGE THINGS OVER TO ALL RAIN OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.....By the way, I was at the store this morning and I heard this twice from people who said they saw the morning news and the forecast was for snow on Monday. I just don't see it happening. Do NOT change any of your plans because of a snow forecast this far out. Besides, the main storm is long gone....I  really don't get where the snow is coming from.

Our migrating cranes with Operation_Migration are still on the ground in Washington County this morning. Conditions look favorable for flying tomorrow morning.

At least 733 was found and many, many people are happy and excited about that... see yesterday afternoon's post. This morning's Courier-Journal...at least the Indiana edition...had the crane's rescue as the headline story on the front page. I looked for a link to the story on their web site but I couldn't find the story on the web. I even got a mention in today's report on the migration.... In our exuberance and our anxiousness to thank every one yesterday we missed mentioning John Belski of WAVE3 News. John has been keeping everyone updated on the progress of the search via his "Belski's Blog". Hope we can be forgiven for not being able to acknowledge many of you personally. You know who you are. Please know you have the gratitude of all of us at OM and thousands of Craniacs across the country. ...thanks for the plug. Remember, we do an update every day on the cranes on the 5:00 weather report which will be broadcast today from the Salvation Army Angel Tree booth at Green Tree Mall in Clarksville.

Wednesday late evening 11/28

The missing crane we have been talking about has been found (see the afternoon post below) and is back together with Operation Migration and his 16 other whooping crane buddies.

More ski resorts are opening out west. Mt. Baker in Washington state will open on Thursday. They picked up a foot and a half of snow earlier this week. For tonight and tomorrow.... SNOWFALL RATES OF AN INCH PER HOUR ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT...AND ROAD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS QUICKLY. SNOW AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 14 INCHES ARE EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

The next winter storm comes out of the Rockies Friday night into Saturday. This is the 4 inch snow potential from the HPC.

Wednesday late afternoon 11/28

BREAKING NEWS......we think this could be the missing crane from Operation Migration. #733 has been missing since Friday when the flock took off from the Muscatatuck NWR on their way to Shelby Co., Kentucky.

A search over a number of counties has been going on since then. This photo was taken this morning west of Scottsburg, IN. Arthur spotted the bird and brought the photo into WMPI radio in Scottsburg. They notified Operation Migration. A search in currently in progress in that area. If you look at the crane's upper right leg you can see a green tracking device. This puts out a signal for a distance of one to five miles so hopefully 733 will be rescued this afternoon.

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One other quick update.... U.S. emissions of the gases blamed for global warming fell 1.5% in 2006 thanks to the use of alternative energy, the government said Wednesday.

Energy Information Administration, the analytical arm of the Department of Energy, estimated that 2006 emissions fell to 7,075.6 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent.

Output of carbon dioxide, the main greenhouse gas, were 5,934.4 million tons compared to 6,045 million tons in 2005.

Wednesday early afternoon 11/28

No snow close by so here is a quick tour.....on the left are the Wind River mountains in Wyoming. On the right is Crane Lake, MN which already looks like it is in mid-winter mode.

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Duluth, MN on the left has had a small amount of snow. Most of it has been in the arrowhead region of Minnesota. On the right is Twin Lakes, Michigan. Notice the depth at about 6 inches. That could be above 2 feet by Sunday....we'll check back.

Click on the map to see this morning's lows. You have to look real close to see any below zero weather so things have moderated just a bit compared with yesterday.

Coldest in the U.S. this morning: -2 at Grand Forks, ND... Thief River Falls, MN and Land O Lakes, WI

In Alaska:  -30 at Beaver Creek.

This is the HPC 5 day rain forecast. Another soaking here on Sunday. It's all liquid here but look at northern Michigan and the U.P.  2 inches water content....some of that may go to rain if warmer air gets that far north. The upper peninsula will get all snow and lots of it.

Tuesday late evening 11/27

One hundred 911 calls. That's what a Northern Michigan central dispatch received during this morning's commute-- sending deputies out to nearly 50 car accidents in Grand Traverse County alone. People wanted to know where the plows were. I wanted to know why people in Michigan can't drive any better in the snow.

For more from Traverse City..... click  here

The weather conditions were much worse in the upper peninsula of Michigan.  Tuesday morning, snow blew across roads in the Marquette area, making for dangerous driving. The blizzard conditions produced gusts in some places as high as 70 mph. For more details.... click  here

Another forecast for a mild winter. This one from the UKMET. Click on the map for a larger view. Click  here for more info on the European forecast.

Tuesday late afternoon 11/27

Here is a great story from Minnesota about a couple who take their geese out for a flight every day. This includes a video of the story......click  here

From Operation Migration...the cranes are still in Washington Co., KY. One of the cranes is still missing. See previous posts from yesterday for more info on the missing crane.

In Bismarck, ND the current temperature is 12 yet officials are welcoming the colder weather as it puts an end to the wildfire season....click  here

Here is the current view at the Alta, UT ski resort. More snow is on the way. From the NWS..... SNOW WILL DEVELOP TODAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO NORTHERN UTAH
AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING. THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SNOW WILL DECREASE BY LATE EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SQUALLS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AS A VERY COLD
AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN UTAH. HEAVY SNOW IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREA...WITH LIGHTER SNOW EXPECTED FARTHER FROM THE GREAT SALT LAKE. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF THE GREAT SALT LAKE.

This is Buffalo where increasing winds tonight will bring the lake effect snow. Heaviest will be east of Buffalo. From the NWS.... ACCUMULATIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH THE GREATEST AMOUNTS ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SOME SLEET AND SNOW PELLETS MAY ALSO MIX IN AT TIMES. IN ADDITION TO SNOWFALL...WIND GUSTS OF 45 TO 55 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY ACROSS SKI COUNTRY AND THE WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MAY OCCASIONALLY REACH INTO THE MORE DISTANT SOUTHERN SUBURBS AS WELL. WHILE IT REMAINS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT THE EXACT LOCATION OR INTENSITY OF THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS BY FRIDAY EVENING MAY EXCEED ONE FOOT IN THE MOST PERSISTENT BANDS