Belski's Blog

Wednesday late evening 10/31

October weather numbers.... High: 93 with 3 days in the 90s... Low: 37 ..... Rain: 8.86" this was the wettest October ever in Louisville.

ATTENTION...if you have a high interest in weather, you may want to check into this.......

CoCoRaHS is a grassroots volunteer network of backyard weather observers of all ages and backgrounds working together to measure and map precipitation (rain, hail and snow) in their local communities. By using low-cost measurement tools, stressing training and education, and utilizing an interactive Web-site, our aim is to provide the highest quality data for natural resource, education and research applications. The only requirements to join are an enthusiasm for watching and reporting weather conditions and a desire to learn more about how weather can effect and impact our lives.

Our Web page provides the ability for our observers to see their observations mapped out in "real time", as well as providing a wealth of information for our data users.

For more information, please click: here

Your only expense will be for this official rain gauge if you don't have one already.

A cool down for next week. It looks like a glancing blow with the coldest air well to our northeast. A few days ago the GFS had a snowstorm in our area around the 11th. That is long gone and just another reason don't look at the models that far out for a specific forecast.

Wednesday early afternoon 10/31

It's the strongest quake in the San Francisco area since 1989.....

Magnitude	5.6
Date-Time	Wednesday, October 31, 2007 at 03:04:54 UTC Tuesday, October 30, 2007 at 08:04:54 PM at epicenter
Location	37.432°N, 121.776°W
Depth	9.2 km (5.7 miles)
Region	SAN FRANCISCO BAY AREA, CALIFORNIA
Distances	8 km (5 miles) NNE (31°) from Alum Rock, CA 11 km (7 miles) E (91°) from Milpitas, CA 15 km (9 miles) NE (45°) from San Jose City Hall, CA Damage is minor. For a report from KNTV...click  here

Tuesday morning 10/30

Tropical storm Noel now has winds to 60 mph with gusts to 70. The storm track has been adjusted a little furtheer to the west so the storm....which is expected to become a category one hurricane....may briefly brush the Miami coast. Between Noel and a strong high pressure further north there are some very gusty winds with an onshore flow. This is causing problems as far north as Charleston, SC.

For a report from Tybee Island, GA near Savannah....click  here.

California firefighters hope to have all of the fires contained before Santa Ana winds develop by late Friday. Cal Fire officials said that all days off remain canceled until further notice, and county emergency operations officials have scheduled a meeting on Monday afternoon to review contingency plans for another wave of fires that may result from the predicted winds.

The Harris Fire is 90,440 acres and 85 percent contained as of Monday night. Full containment is expected on Oct. 31 with full control on Nov. 3. There have been 34 injuries to firefighters, 21 people burned and 5 deaths.

The Witch Fire has burned 197,990 acres and is 95 contained. Full containment is expected on Oct. 30 with full control on Nov. 3. There have been 39 injuries to firefighters and 2 civilian deaths.

The Rice Fire is 9,472 acres and 100 percent contained. Full control is expected on Nov. 5. Six firefighters have been injured.

The Poomacha Fire is at 49,540 acres and is 70 percent contained. Full containment is expected on Oct. 31 with full control on Nov. 5. There have been 21 injuries to firefighters.

Monday evening #2 10/29

Thanks to all the astronomists that have emailed me about Comet Holmes. This picture is from the U of L Moore Observatory in Oldham County.

This is from Mike Sellers of the Louisville Astronomical Society. I just went outside and found the comet with my binoculars in a 5 seconds.

Look to the northeast at mid-evening and find the constellation Casseopeia. It's the W shaped constellation. Look down and to the right just a bit. For a star chart...click  here

Monday evening 10/29

32 degrees at my house this morning. The official Louisville low was 37....NWS at 32....Scottsburg, IN at 27.....Sandy Hook, KY at 25.

The first frost ranged from 3 weeks later than average in the colder locations to about a week later than average in the city.

This link to the NWS has maps for the average dates of 36 degrees and 32 degrees in the spring and fall.....click  here.

The closest moon of the year was last week and the moon is still very large in the sky. This was taken this morning. Check it out tomorrow morning in the western sky.

Santa Ana winds have stopped blowing in Southern California allowing the smoke from the massive fires to reduce visibility in Colorado. Firefighters in Southern California are containing more fires each day as strong Santa Ana winds have ended. There are still more than 380,000 acres burning in Southern California which is roughly three times the size of the Hayman Fire. Southwesterly winds are pushing the smoke plume directly into Colorado. That wind flow along with very weak winds at the surface in Colorado and a temperature inversion that is over most of the state has trapped the smoke in many valleys across Colorado.

Tropical Storm Noel brought heavy rain and flooding to the Dominican Republic on Monday and officials said at least 20 people had died. For more details....click  here

The National Hurricane Center keeps Noel as a tropical storm through the Bahamas and then out to sea. Click on any map or image for a larger view.

Be sure and check out the WAVE 3 Hurricane Center here at wave3.com .....click  here

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2 days until Halloween

Sunday 10/28

Click on the map to see the 5 day forecast from the National Hurricane Center for the latest tropical depression. It looks like this wil become tropical storm NOEL. Here's the forecast problem from the NHC.... THE HUGE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TRACK FORECAST ALSO TRANSLATE INTO A VERY CHALLENGING INTENSITY PROGNOSIS.  IF THE OFFICIAL TRACK WERE TO VERIFY PERFECTLY...THE CIRCULATION CENTER WOULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR ABOUT FOUR MORE DAYS BEFORE CROSSING CUBA.  SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY NEAR THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR TWO...THE RESULTING DECREASE IN WIND SHEAR WOULD PROBABLY ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING.  IF...HOWEVER... THE CYCLONE GOES FARTHER NORTH AND EAST...LAND INTERACTION WOULD OCCUR SOONER AND PERHAPS FOR A LONGER PERIOD AND COULD LIMIT STRENGTHENING.

I was watching CNN the other night and Lou Dobbs was going off the deep end about how inaccurate the hurricane forecasts were for this year. The meteorologist was trying to say he was wrong but Lou just laughed him off and said these were some of the worst forecasts he'd ever heard. So who is right?

On the left is the NHC hurricane forecast from this past May. The hurricane experts at Colorado St. also predicted 14 named storms and 7 hurricanes. Here is what we have had so far this season.... 13 named storms and number 14 will develop this week. There have been 4 hurricanes of ehich 2 were category 5. So the forecast is a little low on hurricanes and major hurricanes. The problem is, since there has been little or no activity for the U.S., people think it has been a quiet year and it has...for the U.S.  Otherwise it has been a fairly active year.

Friday night 11:30

I was working in the Storm Center this afternoon when I happened to look up at the tower cam view and did a double take.

Upon closer inspection, there was a fire in West Louisville with the smoke reaching up to the low hanging clouds.

Click on the image for a larger view.

Friday early evening 10/26

Thanks to Tom for sending in this photo. He is just back from the Smoky Mountains and the color looks spectacular.

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I checked out some of the web cam from the Smokies.

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The week of the 5th looks pretty cool in a NW flow, no big weather systems....probably some snow showers up in the Great Lakes.

From the NWS in Louisville....The first frost of the season will likely develop early Monday morning under clear skies as temperatures fall into the 30s. The coldest temps (lower to mid 30s) are expected across Southern Indiana, North Central Kentucky and East Central Kentucky including Louisville, Lexington and Frankfort where readings may reach or approach the freezing mark.  To see the map....click  here

Try to avoid using plastic or paper sacks. A pumpkin bucket or pillowcase or something that is reusable is much friendlier to the earth.

Friday morning 10/26

The World Series shifts out to Denver this weekend. When the Rockies made the World Series a week and a half ago, I mentioned there was a chance for snow in Denver this weekend. That system moved in a lot faster and they received up to 7 inches of snow last Sunday. Here is the forecast for the Saturday through Monday games.... SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE MORNING THEN MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 50S..SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S..SUNDAY...SUNNY...WARMER. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S..SUNDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S..MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

Here is a Rockies fan who has painted the logo onto his yard. We'll see if the rarified air of Denver has any effect on the Red Sox.

In our area we are very thankful for the rain this week. Up in Minnesota they have had so much rain for so long the dry weather is welcome. The harvest up there has resumed....click here

We have gone from a severe drought to moderate drought in this week's report. This includes rain through Tuesday at 7 AM so the situation is even a little more improved than the map shows. Click on the graphic to se the map and check out the percentages of the various drought categories.

President Bush dispatched his Interior secretary and other top officials to meet with the governors of Alabama and Georgia as the region descended deeper into a drought.

Interior Secretary Dirk Kempthorne is scheduled to visit both states today, giving the governors an opportunity to make their case for federal relief. The two states, along with Florida, are mired in a decades-long water fight over federal reservoirs, with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers in the middle. For more details....click here

  Today is Frankenstein Friday. The Friday before Halloween celebrates and remembers Mary Shelley and Boris Karloff, the “mother” and “father” of Frankenstein.

  Also, today is Mule Day. These are various celebrations around the country. The biggest appears to be in Columbia, TN and they have their festival in April.

5 days until Halloween

Thursday early evening 10/25

Thse pictures were taken this afternoon. That's Mammoth Cave National Park in Kentucky on the left and Brown County State Park in Indiana on the right. Click on any picture for a larger view. Near peak color for this weekend. Things are running a little slow this year so our color should increase a bit into at least early next week.

Saturday morning is a 5 mile run or a 3 mile walk to benefit Home of the Innocents. This takes place at Bernheim Forest. So go enjoy the fall color, get some exercise and help out Home of the Innocents all at the same time. Pre-registration begins at 7:00 AM and the run/walk begins at 9:00.

For more info...click here