Belski's Blog

Saturday 6:00 PM 11/7

  This past October was the third coldest in the U.S. since records began back in the 1800s.
The last time it was this cold was October of 1976. The following winter had some brutal cold in the Ohio Valley.
Click on the map for a larger view. Florida was the only state to average above normal.
Oklahoma had their coolest October ever.
New Zealand had their coldest October in 64 years as worldwide temperatures dropped again in October.

For today though, it is all about the warmth. Our high reached 74 and will be in the 70s again for Sunday.

Friday 6:00 PM 11/6

This morning's low of 34 was the second coldest of the season. Officially no freeze yet in the city. Most suburban areas have had several freezes.
 
An early look at Thanksgiving week shows quiet weather for the first half of the week across the central and eastern part of the country. (This is beyond the 14 day forecast)

Friday 10:00 AM 11/6

There have been some changes in the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale. This is now going to an only wind scale as storm surge can vary on the size of the hurricane, the underwater structure of a coastline at landfall and the angle and speed a storm hits the coast.....click  here  

The NHC is also asking for comments about the public advisories they issue. I have always complained that the public advisories don't list the wind and other important data until the 7th or 8th paragraph. Also, you have to look to other statements to find the actual NHC wind forecast with a storm. For more on their proposed changes.....click  here 

This El Nino Advisory was issued yesterday by NOAA.....
Synopsis: El Niño is expected to continue strengthening and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-2010.

During October 2009, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies increased across the central andeastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The Niño-3.4 index increased nearly a degree with the most recent weekly value at +1.5°C. Above-average subsurface temperature anomalies increased across a large region of the central and east-central Pacific, with anomalies ranging between +1 to +5°C by the end of the month . Consistent with this warming, subsurface oceanic heat contentanomalies (average departures in the upper 300m of the ocean) also increased during the month.

In addition, low-level westerly and upper-level easterly wind anomalies strengthened over much of theequatorial Pacific. The pattern of tropical convection also remained consistent with El Niño, with enhanced convection over the west-central Pacific and suppressed convection over Indonesia. Collectively, these oceanic and atmospheric anomalies reflect a strengthening El Niño.

There continues to be disagreement among the models on the eventual strength of El Niño, but the majority indicate that the three-month average Niño-3.4 SST index value will range between +1.0°C and +1.5°C during the Northern Hemisphere winter. Consistent with the historical evolution of El Niño, a peak in SST anomalies is expected sometime during November-January. At this time, there is a high degree of uncertainty over how long this event will persist. Most of the models suggest that this event will last through March-May 2010, although the most likely outcome is that El Niño will peak at least at moderate strength (3-month Niño-3.4 SST index of +1.0°C or greater) and last through at least the Northern Hemisphere winter 2009-10.

Expected El Niño impacts during November 2009-January 2010 include enhanced precipitation over the central tropical Pacific Ocean and a continuation of drier-than-average conditions over Indonesia.

For the contiguous United States, potential impacts include above-average precipitation for Florida, central and eastern Texas, and California, with below-average precipitation for parts of the Pacific Northwest. Above-average temperatures and below-average snowfall is most likely for the Northern Rockies, Northern Plains, and Upper Midwest, while below-average temperatures are expected for the southeastern states.

Friday 8:00 AM 11/6

Louisville city low this morning: 35
Suburbs: 30
Kentucky state low: 28 at Jackson
Indiana state low: 29 at Floyds Knobs
Lower 48 low so far this morning: 15 at Leota, MI
Alaska low so far: -9

The 00Z GFS has some light snow in the area on Wednesday, Nov. 18 and the 06Z GFS has highs in the 50s the same day. Welcome to the world of winter forecasting 2 weeks ahead of time.

My winter forecast will be out on November 25.

The current score on the folklore winter forecasts....
COLD/SNOWY 15 forecasts
MILD  1
NORMAL  3

Thursday 5:30 PM 11/5

I will buy into the cool down around the 15th for now but I don't think this is it yet for any steady cold.

Thursday 12:30 PM 11/5

The NWS in Wilmington, OH has changed the winter storm warning criteria for it's counties along and north of interstate 70. This comes in line with the NWS Indy warning criteria for 6 inches and an advisory for less than 6 inches of snow. The Indy coverage area comes down to Seymour so that can be confusing for our TV viewers when 4 inches of snow is in the forecast and Louisville has a warning and Seymour has an advisory.
Read more about Wilmington's changes....click  here  

The 12Z GFS is picking up on major cooling for a few days around November 15. Thickness levels under 522 so any moisture out there would be snow.....light if we even get anything.

We have seen this a couple of times in the past month only to have the model back off once we get closer so let's watch this for a few days.

Thursday 9:00 AM 11/5

Ida is a category one hurricane with winds of 75 mph. The NHC forecasts it to weaken over Central America and then get stronger over water during the weekend back to 50 mph as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.
Major flooding is expected in eastern Nicaragua and Honduras.
If the storm stays over water longer, it could end up getting much stronger. The Gulf temperatures are much lower than the Caribbean so it would weaken as it heads toward the U.S.
The GFS has a system ahead of Ida reaching the Gulf coast and then moving up our way with rain on Tuesday. The GFS takes Ida to Florida with heavy rains north of Tampa.
Click on the map for a larger view of the 5 day forecast for Ida.
Here is the link to the NHC.....click  here    

Thursday 8:00 AM 11/5

Here is another winter forecast.....this one from one of our regular commenters, Mike S.

Mike’s 2009/2010 Winter Forecast

Forecasting winter weather, even less than 48 hours, in the Ohio Valley is just as challenging as forecasting winter weather for the major cities in the Northeast with an approaching Nor’easter. So many things can change at the last minute. Historically, storm tracks seem to find Louisville on a map and mark an ‘x’ for its targeted destination. Then, suddenly, the track either shifts 50 miles north or south of the area at the last minute. While I think it’s difficult to nail a set amount of snow for one storm, it just does not seem likely to do so for an entire season. That is why I have tried using statistical probabilities for an approximate number. Remember that there are many variables that go into long-range forecasting. In fact, some things may ‘come up’ after a forecast is already made. That’s the beauty of statistical probabilities, which factors some of these unexpected events by placing a ‘weight of importance’ for each item and the likelihood of it happening. I have noticed some using the same variables I’m using. But, there are several variables I’ve elected not to use, as my personal ‘weight of importance’ for that variable did not quantify it. Here is a list of the variables I’m using for this forecast in no particular order:

Strengthening/Weakening El Nino

North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)

Strength of Hawaiian High vs. Aleutian Low

Strength of Great Basin High vs. Hudson Bay Low

Expected snow cover each month for the northern part of United States and much of Canada

Major volcanic eruptions either in the tropics or the high latitudes

Louisville’s heat island effect

Expected local cold air to be in place (somewhat related to the heat island effect)

Historical storm track

I consider the winter season to run from December thru February. The probability and the expected total snow amount will cover this period. However, I will include November and March as part of the discussion.

NOVEMBER 2009:

While we will be basking in late-fall warmth (making up for lack of it in October) for a little while longer, look for a reality check later this month. Look for a hard freeze by Thanksgiving. Even a few flurries may be possible by the end of the month but no accumulations.  Temps – near normal (+/-0.7 deg); Precip – below normal

DECEMBER 2009:

Not too many nice days lined up for this month. Expect a prevailing, cold pattern with impulses riding along a high-pressure ridge (Great Basin) down into our neck of the woods. Cold air will become trapped in the Great Basin and cause a stubborn high pressure, which will result in below-normal temps for much of the month for us. In addition, the PDO could be heading for a positive phase, which will also contribute to a trough to the east of the Great Basin. As for precipitation, looks like many opportunities for the wintry type; however, without any subtropical injection, precip amounts should be light. I say the subtropical injection because I don’t believe the Hawaiian high that keeps California and parts of the desert Southwest dry will break down until the end of the month. Afterward, a subtropical jet will begin to intensify. El Nino should reach its climax by this time, as well, with SST anomalies approaching or exceeding 1.2.  As a side note, I did include a strengthening low over the Hudson Bay because of the relatively warmer waters versus the cold, Canadian terrain. That could cause a cutoff low nearing the Great Lakes and provide more opportunities for the white stuff here in Louisville albeit a limited probability. 40% chance for White Christmas; Temps – below normal; Precip – slightly below normal (- 0.7”); Snow - 1.7 – 3.5”.

JANUARY 2010:

Earlier in a preliminary forecast, I was thinking that the first part of January would see above normal temps. The probabilities are now leaning toward a colder start with a gradual warming trend over the last 10 days of the month.  However, the battle between the NAO and El Nino should provide a win-win for us. As cold air remains in place, an increasingly active subtropical jet will start weaving its magic across the south. Moisture will impact our area with a good probability for a significant snowstorm before the middle of the month. On the other hand, although there is a good probability for this to occur, we must remember that cold air does not hold much moisture; in fact, it’s somewhat dry. With that being said, it may take a while for the atmosphere to ‘warm’ up enough to support precipitation. Therefore, our snowstorm may not put out more than 5 or 6” when the potential exists for at least 8”. Afterwards, a nice warming trend will set in, the proverbial January thaw. Along with milder air will come a series of storms that will increase our rain chances and increase flooding threats. Look for our lowest reading of the winter season to be about 7 degrees in the city as temps near the goose-egg in the Bluegrass region before the middle of the month. Temps – near normal; Precip – above normal; Snow – 4.7 – 7.9”

FEBRUARY 2010:

A very turbulent period where cold air wins a couple of battles. Still, it looks like the month will end up with temps near to slightly above normal. A low-moderate chance for freezing rain with ice accumulations up to a quarter of an inch. Also, another shot at a heavy, wet snow. El Nino, weakening a bit, could work up a frenzy of severe weather in the south. In fact, during one of our warmer spells, severe chances here might be going up. Temps – near to slightly above normal; Precip – above normal; Snow – 2.4 - 5.6”

MARCH 2010:

March will come in like a lion but then begin to calm down a bit before ending with another roar. Average conditions with mild and cool spells along with rain and sun. Toward the end of the month, another rainy pattern sets in. I don’t see much in the way of snow(<1”). Temps – near normal; Precip – near normal; Snow - < 1”.

Summary: I look for at least 5 or 6 major storm systems that will affect the United States during the December-February winter season. A couple of Nor’easters and an impressive ice storm across parts of Dixie. In addition, look for a tornadic outbreak across Louisiana, south Mississippi and Alabama, and panhandle of Florida. California will finally get their rains especially during January. The best probability for total snow here seems to center on about 15.2”. Range includes 8.9” to as much as 17.3”. Will side with the higher figure since anomalous snow amounts should be expected.

Wednesday 5:30 PM 11/4

There is a new video on WAVE 3 Nation. Kevin tells us about the hot spots that the storm chasers go to when they aren't chasing tornadoes.....click  here 

Tropical Storm IDA with 60 mph winds has formed off the coast of Nicaraugua. Click on the map to see the 5 day forecast from the NHC.
The GFS model has the storm going all the way up to Louisiana. Water temperatures are very warm in the Caribbean but drop off quite a bit in the Gulf of Mexico.
To go to the National Hurricane Center....click  here

Wednesday 2:00 PM 11/4

Last night the weather team had dinner with the winner of our "Name the weather channel" contest....Leslie with her husband Mike.

The 3.3 digital channel will be called WAVE 3 24/7 Weather....your weather now.

The graphics are all done. We are just waiting for some computer work to get the new format on the air which should be any day.

Wednesday 1:00 PM 11/4

Check out this report from the Shreveport, LA NWS office about last week's severe weather outbreak which included 27 tornado touchdowns.....click  here

World Series weather will be cool tonight in New York with temps in the 40s. If it goes to a game 7, showers are likely for Thursday evening which may mix with snowflakes as the NAM puts the thickness lower than 534 and the GFS at 528....540 during the winter is a good rain/snow line. Also the 850mb temps will be at -3. Almost makes you want to hope for a game 7.

Wednesday 10:00 AM 11/4

We have had reports of sleet as far south as Bullitt Co. this morning.  This is all moving off to the east and I can see the blue sky to the west so it should be a pretty afternoon.

Wednesday 9:00 AM 11/4

Where you see the yellows on the radar, that is some sleet falling. This will all move out of the area by 11:00. The highest chance for getting any ice pellets will be north of Louisville. This is the second time this season we have had some sleet in the area.

Expect clearing to take place later on this afternoon which will allow the temperature to recover into the 50s.

Tuesday 10:00 PM 11/3

I am back this evening from having dinner with the rest of the weather team and the winner of our "name the weather channel" contest. I will post a pic tomorrow.

RakeMaker has sent in his winter forecast. Last year Rake was more accurate than the CPC and more accurate than any private service..... so here is his forecast:

Rakemaker’s call for Winter 09-10

 

Whilst I cannot give technical terms and metrological nomenclature I am giving my best

call based on what I have observed and have recently read from so-called Mets on various sites as well as just good ole “gut feelings”. Also when in doubt I will depend on the good old Dart Board for some of the calls. So bear in mind I am simply a layman when it comes to the weather and this is why I make a living cleaning septic tanks.

RM

 

                                          November 09

 

I have a late start on this hence probably a few up on some since there are claims El Nino is becoming strong (within the past 2 weeks). I will say that prior to mid October I was thinking that November would continue a transition into below seasonal levels for the entire month. I now see this isn’t the case so I see the fist half if not the first 3 weeks of the month as above normal temps in the OV. In the period between the third and fouth weeks of the month will turn unseasonably cold again with the possibility of a White T-day (as said almost two weeks ago on the small Lord’s blog. The temp change will also be a challenge to work enough moisture in for any good snow event this month but I call .10 of an inch of snow an “event”. To summarize November stays mild and normally wet through the 3^rd week of the month whilst it goes below normal the last week with normal to below normal precip.

 

                                            December 09

The first of the month continues with normal to below normal temps and continues into close to the 10^th of the month. Right after this is the time I feel we determine what the rest of Winter 09-10 holds. If after the 10^th we go into mid month with clippers I feel this will set up the balance of the Winter, which is what I am calling for. So by midmonth we will begin to see large intrusions of Arctic air masses. These air masses will last 5 or more days and the ‘reload” periods will be less than what we’ve seen in the recent past quite possibly 2-3 days or 72 hours or so. This will give us the chance of some extended periods of snow cover that I think may be common this Winter. Depending on how well the pattern reloads will determine how warm we get. This is due to the southern branch of the jet that will set up from the pacific off southern California and head due northeast and wind just to our south and up Appalachia. The precip for the month as I see it will be above normal due to the moisture accompanying the jet stream from the SW.

We have as good a shot for a White Christmas as we have ever had this year. In other words it won’t be a freak snow or something that develops in days prior to Christmas. I say we will have a shot at an extended period of snow cover pre-Christmas that lasts up until and maybe beyond Christmas.

                                              January 2010

Early Jan. could see a relaxation in the pattern that develops in mid December, again , I don’t think any reloading or relaxing patterns will give much warmth or extended warming (more on this at the end). Once the “calm” of the first of the month expires we get Old Man Winter in earnest! It’s off to the race time and call it or bust time. I think the period brings well below normal temps for and extended period that lasts until around Mid Feburary. During this period we will see normal to above normal precip. Since most or all of this precip will be in snowfall we could easily amass 25+ inches of snowfall whist keep a snow cover for a good extended period of time. Likely up to 5 weeks worth.

Double high pressure systems will set up in the western Plains and middle Western Canada. My reasoning for this will be a –nao that becomes a mainstay during or close to this period of early Jan-around the 10-15^th of Feb if not longer. We will have one of the longest periods of consistent below normal temps we have seen in decades if not set a record itself.

                                          February 2010

As the intense pattern (described above) winds down, we return to avg to above avg temps in the approx. mid February time frame that will take us to the end of the month.

Mid feb-end of feb will bring above normal precip. This coupled with the melting snow and saturated ground from the 6 weeks from Haite, will bring the possibility of severe flooding through the end of the month and possibly into March. March will see a calmer pattern with relatively calm conditions and average precip. Temps will recover to and stabilize to near normal for through the end of calendar Winter.

 

I feel this year it’s going to be a snow lover’s paradise, if I bust I will bust good. If I am wrong it will be completely opposite from what the dartboard says above. There won’t be any “in the middle” calls this Winter, it’s either Cold and Snowy or Mild and dry. I am going cold and snowy.

As stated above in the January dart throws I don’t feel there will be many extended periods relaxations or reloads. The past 3 Winters have been a transition period, a period of decades where we have had relatively mild winters. Sure there have been times of blizzards like the early 90’s and other good snow storms, ice storms etc etc but this transition period in my opinion will continue in 09/10 only this Winter we will see conditions as experienced in 77 and most definitely like were experienced in the early to mid 60’s. I didn’t reference a lot of theories and conditions like -/+ PDO’s, sunspots, global warming/cooling and El or La Niño’s. So sue me. I am not so sure these or many other conditions will make any difference this year. In my opinion we are transitioning into cooler Winters with more snow fall. I am betting our number is up this year for a good ole fashioned Winter depending on your perspective. Expect 35 plus inches of snow for Winter 09/10 with a lot of it staying around a bit.

Lastly I have read some calls for exact days of snow falls, I don’t see how (even with the best darts known to man) anyone could make a call on an exact day weeks or months out.

To this I say Poppycock!

So there it is, Rake’s Throw for 09/10. If I miss I miss bad and you can put the sleds up for another year.

Lets see how it pans out.

RM

Tuesday 5:30 PM 11/3

Kevin and I have cut a new video for WAVE 3 Nation at wave3.com. We have the latest update on the new look for the 24 hour weather channel on 3.3

To see the video....click  here  

You may have heard about the Chinese meteorologists who seeded the clouds the other day near Beijing and it ended up snowing. This map shows the snow cover over an area that covers hundreds of miles and there is no way that cloud seeding is going to work over such a large area. Click on the map for a larger view.