Weather Blog

(5/23) Memorial Day Weekend Preview

A cold front moving through Kentuckiana today will make for a cooler afternoon with a chance of showers. Not everyone is going to see the rain as showers will be scattered. We're looking at highs today in the lower 70's with a breezy west wind. Not too shabby, eh? The highs in the lower 70's with clearing skies will stick around for your Friday and Saturday as high pressure moves in behind today's cold front. So, part one of the Memorial Day weekend looks pretty uneventful!

 

 

A disturbance in the mid-level flow at 500 mb (about 18,000 feet) will move through to our north on Sunday into Monday, triggering a small chance of scattered showers and storms. Much like today's shower chance, this won't be an all-day rain for both Sunday and Monday. Not everyone will see the rain either. High temperatures will be getting back into the lower 80's. So whether you're going to Abbey Road on the River, the Kentucky Reggae Festival, or just hosting your own Memorial Day cookout in your backyard, don't cancel your plans due to the weather! Just be ready to endure a brief shower or two while you're outdoors on Sunday into Monday. Temperatures and humidity will be on the increase as we head into the rest of next week.

 

 

Ryan Hoke

   

CoolTALK! Wednesday Edition

We will keep you updatd on air and social media with the short-term storms in the region.  Overall...it doesn't look too bad out there for us.

Looking ahead...2 big events for our region.

1) Cool Down

2) Heating Up

THE COOL DOWN
That will arrive with a secondary front tomorrow afternoon.  Mainly just showers with this front.  Cloudy otherwise...and cool. Highs only in the low to mid 70s.

The cool weather will then usher in with at least 2...maybe 3 nights in the mid to upper 40s for the region.  Sunshine will help balance the cool air mass Friday and Saturday...but the northerly winds will be a tough battle.  Overall, highs will get close to 70, but some areas may not make it above 65!

Sunday there will be a warm front that will start to live north.  There is disagreement on the speed of this front. That will impact any storm potential.  The longer it takes to push north, the more risk for a storm to ride the front down from the NW flow.  GFS suggest that is possible Sunday.

Memorial Day looks like the warm front will start to push north...and may be far enough to keep the storm flow north as well.  But again, I caution that a slower movement of the front will bring a storm chance.

HEATING UP
Once this warm front clears the region, get ready for a nice warming trend.

 

The EURO really shows the surge of warmth over the country as the storm track shifts more into Canada.  Highs likely will reach the 90s for the first time this year.

Usually when we see large eastern high pressures like this, the tropics react.  And that will be something to watch by the first week of June.  The flow likely would send any systme northward.

Latest on Storm Setup

So far so good...just isolated severe storms in the region today..mainly southern counties.

We will see a break...but we will not be completely in the clear from the threat for severe storms until Thursday.

SPC Outlook Tonight (bigger threat well south/west of our area)

There is some sun breaking back out across west KY.  Watch that to see how it affects new development in AR/MO at this hour.

The flow ahead of those storms is north..but the upper level winds are more east/northeast. That should allow for a slow progression eastward.

Latest NAM HI RES does show the storms trying to move in near 11pm tonight.

But..it fades them near sunrise. Just like we saw this morning.

That is possible---but I think we need to nowcast this event more than put too much onto models.  We will keep an eye on the activity near Paducah this evening.

 

WEDNESDAY

SPC Outlook -- risk has been expanded to include much of the area

Storms possible at any point of the day...damaging winds/large hail the main threats.

There is a small tornado threat with this setup the next 48 hours...but it would be isolated and likely weak/brief tornadoes.  But tornadoes are NOT the major type of event with this system in our area.  Large hail and straight-line winds are more of a concern.

THURSDAY
The main temperature drop front moves in.  Cloudy skies likely with showers in the afternoon.  Temps may actually fall after the front passes in the afternoon.

HIGHS This weekend may struggle to get into the 70s.
LOWS likely will dip into the upper 40s!

There are still signs of MCS (complex of storms) activity riding a warm front near Memorial Day or that Tuesday.  We will watch that carefully.

Amazing Footage from OK

No reporters. No voices at all.
Just the sounds of a funnel cloud...that grows into a monster tornado.

This shows how quickly things can develop. 

Note the sound. And even the hail that falls.   2nd video posted below too.  Thanks to Chuck!

 

 

Severe Storm Risk

We have been heartbroken with the recent reports of tornadoes in TX and OK.  Here are the fatal tornadoes reported just in the last 7 days:

Granbury, TX - Wednesday - EF4 - 6 fatalities
Shawnee, OK - Sunday - EF4 - at least 1 fatality
Moore, OK-Monday (yesterday)- EF4/EF5 (TBA)- 24+ fatalities

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There is still a threat of tornadoes today... mainly in East Texas and a portion of Arkansas.

We have a slight risk of severe storms in our area.  The main threat is damaging wind (15% chance), then large hail (5% chance).  We have a very minimal tornado threat (2% chance). 

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Here are your chances of storms throughout the day:

StormTALK! Monday Edition

A busy few days ahead for us as we track showers/storms moving through the area.  While we are not expecting what those to the west have witnessed (or will witness this evening) we certainly could have watches/warnings in our area as this system passes through.

I will start off in reverse with this post...getting right to the overall summary of what is expected.  Then I will post some graphics with details.  The reason? The details vary quite a bit...but I at least wanted to share them.

OVERALL SETUP:
This afternoon/evening:  Hazy/Humid/Very Warm.  How close we get to the record of 91 is still in question.  Either way, humidity will make it feel like it out there.  There is still a risk for an isolated strong/severe storm that could pop later today.  They would be brief/slow moving...but could pack a punch for whoever falls under it.  We will keep an eye on the radar trends.

Overnight:  a line of storms will make a run for us from the west.  Latest data still strongly suggests that the line will weaken as it approaches I 65.  In fact, some of the models only indicate clouds surviving this far east...fading the rain out fast.  I would make sure to tune into Kevin tonight at 11pm for an update ...especially for those of you say from Jasper to Paoli.

Tuesday morning through midday:  overall---looks pretty quiet.  There still may be a risk for those showers mentioned above...but this looks to be the lowest rain chance part of the day. 

Tuesday afternoon:  We become quite unstable.  This is where the NAM/GFS do vary.  NAM suggest a setup that could support spotty afternoon development.  Especially across southern IN and west of I 65 in KY.  GFS delays any impact from storms until sunset or later.  This is a case of how much sunshine we pick up during the morning/midday.  If it is sunny out...I would not rule out afternoon storms popping.  There is quite a bit of energy at play...all we need is at trigger.  So we will be watching tomorrow afternoon very closely.

Overnight Tuesday/early Wednesday:  This could be an active period. Showers/storms rolling through.  However, instability will be lower.  That may help keep the intensity in check.  There is some decent wind energy passing overhead at this time---so severe threat is certainly possible.

Wednesday afternoon:  This is a transition day in which the best wind energy heads more into OH.  We may see clouds limiting our heating/instability quite a bit on this day.  While some gusty storms are possible...there are more players on the field to help keep the severe coverage lower during this period.

Thursday afternoon: the main cold front finally pushes in from the north.  If we get any sun, some stronger storms may be possible on the KY side of the Ohio River in the early afternoon.  This is a narrow window of potential however as dry air will quickly overtake the area by afternoon and evening.

So there you have it.  That is a best guess right now on how things look to evolve.  But as always when it comes to severe storms in our area....small changes in the ingredients and change the outcome.  Our main threats will be large hail (especially Tuesday) ...damaging winds...heavy rain...and very intense lightning.  Tornado threat is there...but low.  Nothing like what people have faced the past few days in the Plains. 

Here are some graphics to explain in more detail.

First...SPC outlooks:

TUESDAY:  SLIGHT RISK

% POTENTIAL:  15% with 30% not far away. 

Winds Aloft:

GFS: not impressive                       NAM: a bit stronger..esp IN

                        

CAPES (instability) :

GFS : not overly high                NAM: more than 2500, that is high.

                   

                        

RADAR-=-- NAM...TUES NIGHT

WEDNESDAY:  SLIGHT RISK (esp north/east)

Winds aloft:

GFS - stronger winds head NE        NAM

                            

CAPES:

GFS- low values, but there         NAM-- very similar to GFS

                     

THURSDAY :  No Risk from SPC

There will be a risk for gusty storms..mainly across KY in the early afternoon hours.

 

Then we get to the holiday weekend.

The issue here will be how low do we go Friday or Saturday night?  Some of the recent data the air looks dry enough that upper 40s are possible.  Highs may be limited to the 60s north...but 70s for the majority of the area.  It should feel great!!

There are signs that a warm front will surge north Memorial Day or that Tuesday.

If that happens...we could set up for a strong NW flow that may lead to MCS' (complexes of storms) to ride that flow.  Will it aim toward us...or stay just to our north?!!??

Too early to make that call but needs to be watched.

Nevertheless, the heating that will take place with this warm front looks intense.  We may be talking about several days in the 90s ahead as we approaching the first of June.

 

Never Let Them See You Sweat!

We could be headed to a record high today!  It will be a hot and humid day... the hottest of the year so far.  Temperatures will start cooling back down tomorrow through the weekend with storms headed our way.

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  The Plain States suffered through an outbreak of severe storms and tornadoes yesterday, and unfortunately they will have another threat of severe weather again today.  In WAVE Country, we will see this storms from this same system starting tomorrow through Thursday.

We have a chance of storms tomorrow, and we will be watching for the risk of severe storms with large hail and damaging winds as the main threat.

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We will still be on alert Wednesday for the potential of severe storms as the cold front pushes through our area.  Again large hail and damaging winds will be the main threat.

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These storms are going to drop some heavy rain from time to time, but we don't expect any major flooding with this system.  Most of our area will get around 0.75" - 1" total through Thursday morning.

StormTALK! Sunday Night Edition

Pretty quiet around here...compared to the Plains states.

Of course, Larue/Hardin counties were the exception today with the large hailstorm that impacted you guys around 5pm.

Thanks for all the pics and videos!!  Melissa posted this one from Hodgenville earlier on our facebook page.

Now we get into 3 big stories in the days ahead.

1) Record Heat Potential
2) Severe Storm Potential
3) Lows in the 40s?

Quite the range there.

RECORD HEAT POTENTIAL:

Record high for Louisville tomorrow is 91 set back in 1934.  The amount of warm air aloft tomorrow is plentiful.  This should allow for quite a warm/hot day for the area.  The models have fluctuated with 88 to as high as 92 for a high the past week for Monday.  I think 92 is certainly reachable...and obviously would break the old record.  We shall see.

With all the heat, the atmosphere will have high amounts of CAPES (energy) for storm development.

BUT, we have warming aloft..which limits the size of the cumulus clouds...and no obvious trigger.  While I think most of us will stay dry and hot, I need to urge caution (just like today) that any small trigger/boundary could fire up an isolated strong/severe storm.  Coverage looks 10%...but just like today, that 10% could be over you.  We will keep an eye on it.

SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL:  * no SPC outlooks for our area the next few days...that may change*
The models have been insistant that storms will try to make a run for us late tomorrow night.

However they will run into the effects of the high pressure (as mentioned above) and look what the models show happens to them by sunrise Tuesday...poof...gone.

That seems reasonable right now.  So not too concerned with late tomorrow night/early Tuesday..but those of you from Jasper to Paoli may need to be alert just in case they get toooo far east before fading.

Tuesday looks to be another high heating day.  But, there will be colder air working in aloft.  Especially across western and northern sections. NAM shows the risk for storms popping in the afternoon.

Those could be severe with damaging winds/very intense lightning/large hail/very heavy rain.  While coverage does not look widespread, I do think this will be our highest chance of the week for warnings.  Something to monitor.  If you manage to stay rain-free in your backyard Tuesday---you may hit 90 degrees again.

Wednesday, the front pushes into the area.  We have better wind energy for severe.

But...the instability is lowerthanks to cloud cover. 

We have to have all the ingredients line up for severe weather outbreaks...and Tuesday and Wednesday have different ingredients for each day.  If we end up with sunshine Wednesday, I would be expected more of a severe threat...but right now---signs of clouds are pretty strong with the data.  Any sun breaks look more likely across southern KY.  We will watch it.

Another cold front will slide in Thursday.  Showers/storms with that front.

Then we prepare for very dry air this holiday weekend.

Low temps may drop into the upper 40s away from the city limits Saturday night.  Dry air heats pretty fast this time of the year, so I am not buying the model outputs of 60s for highs right now..I think we can easily jump from 48 or so to mid 70s with full sun.  We can fine-tune when we get closer.

There is a warm front expected near Memorial Day.  That may bring back a rain chance---but we will leave that alone for right now.

(5/19) Storm Chase - Day 6: Wrap Up

It's been a crazy 48 hours and I'm just now able to post about my last day of storm chasing from Friday. We got back to Oklahoma City at 2am on Saturday after quite a long chase day in Texas. My flight for Louisville left at 7am that same morning so you can imagine how tired I was yesterday during my trip home! It was worth it though because we saw a great storm south of Wichita Falls, TX to top off our 2,621 mile chase through Oklahoma, Texas, and Louisiana. Check out the detailed map of our chase route!

 

 

On Friday afternoon a cluster of supercell storms blew up along the dryline just south of Wichita Falls, TX, almost exactly at the time and location that the HRRR model indicated they would (click here for my Friday afternoon weather briefing). The best winds and temperatures for tornadic development were just north of where these storms fired up so we waited a bit to see if a storm would form in that environment before dropping south to intercept the cluster south of Wichita Falls. While a storm did try to form in the more favorable area to our north it failed to sustain itself and dissipated. By this time the storms to just to our south had consolidated into a huge stationary supercell storm, so south we went!

 

 

As we approached the north side of the storm we saw four small funnel clouds, with the two most visible ones pictured to the right. While this is not typically part of a supercell that you would see funnel clouds and tornadoes, we still had the remnant rotation of one of the supercell storms that had just merged with the main one embedded in the northern side of the now larger storm. Long story short, lots of small funnels popped up in that part of the storm before everything congealed completely from the previous mergers.

 

 

After the funnels we continued south through the storm to get to the main updraft base where tornado formation was taking place. The problem was that it took us quite a bit of time to find a route around the main hail core of the storm. We kept having to turn around and take a different road as we ran into hail that was becoming a safety hazard due to its size. Our vehicle windows could have easily been shattered had we continued down some of these routes. We valued our safety over the time it took to get to the updraft of the storm, which you should always do as a storm chaser. Unfortunately that meant missing out on the pair of small tornado touchdowns that happened just before we got to the tornadic updraft. But, being able to see the updraft base that dropped multiple wall clouds against a spectacular sunset was awe-inspiring. A slideshow from Friday is below.

 

Ryan Hoke

HOTTEST TEMPS OF THE YEAR BRING STORMS

FOGGY START...

TODAY...

A few pop up storms will be possible now through this evening, primarily to the South and East of the metro. Any storms that do develop will produce heavy rain & thousands of lightning strikes. They may become locally strong, too. Most of us stay dry today, and warm too - highs in the mid 80s.

STORM CHANCE...

HEATING UP...

The hottest temperatures of the year will arrive tomorrow ahead of our next rain maker. Expect highs to top out near 90 under partly cloudy skies. We'll keep a 10% storm chance in the forecast tomorrow - but the main story will be the heat. Heat index will be in the low 90s tomorrow. As the front gets closer Tuesday we'll keep the heat around, with more widespread storms come Tuesday and into Wednesday. We'll watch the potential of that front...strong to severe storms look possible at this point, but being a few days out we'll keep a close eye on it. Stay tuned to Wave 3 and wave3.com for the latest.