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1:31 PM- Call has started... John Gordon (meteorologist in charge of NWS LOUISVILLE) is hosting.
1:32 PM- 100% of rain for the area Thursday...heavy rain Thursday night across KY especially.
1:32 PM- Cold air rushes in across SW IN late Thursday night. Perhaps as early as 10pm Thursday.
1:33 PM- Today is the day if you have any plans outside especially.
1:34 PM- Cold air moves in Friday across the entire region. Winter Storm WATCH is out from midnight Thursday night through 7am Saturday. This is the period of greatest winter weather impact.
1:34 PM- Southern counties in jeopardy for flooding.
1:35 PM- We may see an UPGRADE Winter Storm WARNING for the area as tonight.
1:35 PM - Confidence is HIGH for Southern IN for sleet/snow...either one could have signficant amounts.
1:36 PM- Ice is a concern for our SW counties...like Breckinridge.
1:36 PM- Confidence is high for school impacts across southern IN on Friday.
1:37 PM- Tougher call for KY schools as wintry weather arrives a bit later in the morning/early afternoon.
1:37 PM- There will be a sharp cutoff to the wintry weather to heavy rain across southern counties.
1:38 PM **** still watching late Saturday into Sunday. There is a risk for a "bunch" of freezing rain at that time.
1:38 PM-- Mike Callahan with NWS now taking over the call.
1:39 PM- Want to mention the heavy rain for southern counties Thursday into Friday. IF the rain can fall at a decent rate, rivers should handle the heavy rain. We are at winter pool levels for most lakes/rivers. HOWEVER-- if we see rain rates increase...rural flooding is possible.
1:40 PM- The Sunday system will provide ANOTHER 1-2 inches of rain (some freezing north of course). This will enhance the flooding for area rivers for early next week as a result of the heavy rainfall from BOTH systems.
1:41 PM- Joe Sullivan with NWS now taking over the call.
1:41 PM- Request made for HAM radio operators to come online/in early for these events.
1:43 PM- John Gordon is back.
1:44 PM- DRY day Saturday...sunny in fact. BUT...highs only in the 20s. No warming to melt.
JCPS up first--- What is the timeline from rain to the wintry weather Friday? When you wake up Friday...likely rain in Jefferson County. 7-10am rain changes to freezing rain/sleet After 10am...likely all snow. End as light snow Friday evening.
Will ground temps help at start? At first yes, but that will change quickly throughout the day. Friday afternoon travel will be a mess in Louisville Metro.
* NOTE: there will likely be another conf call Thursday with updates.
Louisville Metro Public Works--- When should we expect Saturday night/Sunday's timing? Looks like after 3am Sunday morning...moving in from south. It may be slow moving at first...but 3am-throughout the day Sunday.
UK Police--- Impacts on Monday morning? Ice on the ground likely there. We likely will not rise above freezing Sunday...into Sunday night---so problems Monday morning still expected.
Dubois/Orange County--- We will see wintry weather by Midnight Thursday? Yes, could be a bit earlier...but likey midnight through the early morning Friday.
How much? 3-7" of snow...with some sleet and ice (again for Friday morning)
Question about Wind? Not too much wind involved at this point. Right now..thinking 10 mph which will help but that will have to be watched.
Ice with first event--- Major issues with power lines and such? Not too much expected with the first event. Watching area SW of Ft Knox areas of KY.
Ice with second event-- More of a concern. Could see .25" to as much as .50" of ice. Locations and amounts will be fine-tuned. This could be a SIGNIFICANT event.
Will this be like 2009? As of right now...we are NOT looking at a repeat of that event. Monitoring.
Question from Green County. How does our area look for the first event? Heavy rain mainly for the first event. It may end as light snow Friday night. Advisory could be issued later for that risk. But mostly rain. The second event looks more threatening for ice in that area.
Conference calls question? Could we have more? We likely will have one Thursday. Possibly Friday/Saturday additional ones.
Question from Adair County. More rain or snow here? More rain. Low spots in Adair could see some flooding issues Thursday/Friday. More of an ice issue for Sunday.
When does the rain arrive? As early as tomorrow afternoon/evening. Through at least Friday night. May end as a little snow or freezing drizzle.
And Saturday? Cold day. Some sun. Saturday night/Sunday the concern for the 2nd event.
Question from Trimble Question. How much snow/ice accumulation for 2nd event? Too early to really call. Still focusing on the 2-4" for the first one Friday. Isolated higher. But 2nd event still be evaluated.
Question from Hardin Area. What do expect? Rain Thursday/Thursday night. Mixture late Thursday night into Friday. Ending Friday evening as light snow.
What about 2nd event? Mainly concerned Sunday morning.
Question about warming up? If we get ice with these events...it will be COLD next week. It will be awhile.
QUESTIONS NOW going to the MEDIA
It appears this will be out of the area by 11pm Friday with first event? Yes, overall. But light snow and freezing drizzle may linger a bit.
Saturday night and Sunday--- .25" to .50" of ice looks like a good bet. But you have 1-2" inches of rain south of the river. Do you expect a changeover to all rain? Yes...it is possible..but this is a very tough call on surface temps. Just WAY too early to make that call yet.
** Note: Today is only Wednesday. We HAVE TIME to adjust these factors and forecasts. Keep that in mind.
Question about games in Bowling Green. Concerned about travel concerns for people traveling in that area. Even with Christmas parades taking place across southern KY. -- Understand the concern..still time to move the WATCH/add WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...but still a bit of time from those decisions.
Note: We could have ICE STORM WARNINGS/WINTER STORM WARNINGS and WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES stretching from one end of our viewing area to the other. Location is key on both events.
Question from Kevin Harned-- Concern about Friday night flash freeze and agian Sunday ice. --- Yes, no doubt. Concern certainly Sunday is growing about that. We don't want to downplay Sunday...but we are trying to focus alerts for the first system for now and will weave in concerns with 2nd system as we get closer.
Question from UL about the game in Cincy. Going up to the game? No problem. Just rain. But late Thurdsay night will be tricky near the Cincy game. Improves as you approach Louisville. But fans encouraged NOT to linger in Cincy or it will get more dangerous the longer you wait.
**** 2:17 PM Call has now concluded **** Thanks everyong.
Kevin and the rest of us are working on our thoughts and will have an update.