Weather Blog

Challenging Forecast

Memorial Day---thinking of all of those we lost....

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It will certainly be an interesting week in weather forecasting. 

We are going to see one season to the the next in a matter of 5 days.

Today's season, "summer" of course.  Highs once again in the 90s. And based on the satellite image...today may end up being the hottest of the holiday period.  So far the hottest was 93 on Sunday.  We should easily hit that or slightly beat it.  The record is 98.  That will be safe.  Either way, it will be hot.

The models do vary on how storm chances will play out later today/tonight and Tuesday.  Overall, the trend will be to increase rain chances for this afternoon...increase more tonight...and then ease off on them from Tuesday morning into the afternoon. 

The latest RUC model suggests storms firing along I 65 as early as 2pm this afternoon. However, the models have been too aggressive lately on storm chances so this may be overdone.

Could any be severe? Yes, but only briefly.   Damaging wind gusts/lightning/very heavy rain the main threats.

Anything organized severe-wise should be confined to the main low to our north where the main wind belt is:

Once the cold front clears the area Tuesday---rain chances will fade and temps will drop only slightly on Tuesday (mid to upper 80s).

It is the period Wed-Sat that things get interesting.

An area of low pressure ...deep one that that...is slated to drop down into our area Thursday.  The track of this low varies on just about every model.  That is making high temps/rain amounts/severe risk difficult to nail down.

The NAM does not see out that far yet, so until we can---I would not put too much money in the bank on the specifics on any forecast right now.  Not that the NAM would be right, the NAM is just more detailed and it may help clear up some of the details ...well we need clear :)

Having said that, I will show what the GFS thinks for right now to at least give you an idea of the setup.

GFS develops the deep low and tracks it in a fashion that could set us up for severe storms Friday.  The wind fields are pretty strong on the east side of the low.

CAPES are certainly there as well.

GFS solution also means it would be a bit warmer Friday---mid to upper 70s with the cool day now being Saturday (60s) .  It does suggest lows in the upper 40s and low 50s Sunday morning:

I am not ready to say we will see severe storms out of this low.  The track has been waffling too much on the models to give much confidence.  We will watch it carefully as this would be a damaging wind/tornado setup with the GFS.  We just can't use one model right now.   I will at least say the trend is certainly there for widespread showers/storms Thursday night through Saturday.  High temps will be comprised due to this low with a risk for a day or two only the 60s possible  and maybe one night in the upper 40s and low 50s.  If the low is slow to move---the clouds/cool weather may linger the entire weekend.

Next week does feature a warmup back into the upper 80s to near 90.  So this low will be a welcome break---if it can come through with no severe storms.

Stay tuned for many updates on the end of the week forecast.

MEMORIAL DAY UPDATE

What a way to end the weekend! The warmest air we have seen in quite some time. We were three degrees away from tying the record of 96 degrees. We're not done with the heat just yet...we have to endure it one more day before storms bring cooler weather by mid to the end of this coming work week.

Storm chances increase tomorrow afternoon more so tomorrow evening. Thankfully, it won't be a wash out for any of us tomorrow but the set up will be sufficient for some wet weather. Day time heating will bring a chance for storms tomorrow in addition to an approaching cold front adding fuel to the fire. Best chance for severe weather remains to the North and West of our area directly under the area of low pressure.

Water temperatures in the 60s and 70s will feel nice when heat indicies top out in the mid 90s. While more clouds are expected tomorrow, compared to today, in addition to hit and miss storms...it will still feel every bit of summer rather than Spring.

 

 

Let's Talk Water...

Here is the latest on the pool/lake weather (no, not all lakes were put on the list...but overall the forecast will be about the same for all).

I will focus more on the impacts from late week low and Beryl coming up tomorrow morning.

POOL FORECAST:

LAKE FORECAST:

 

 

 LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES:

 

Wear that sunscreen!!

INDY 500--  A record high is in jeopardy for the Indy 500 today.  I am sure John Belski will be posted often about the race today on his blog as this right up his alley :)  Hot track for sure!

Wacky Forecast Ahead...

The heat continues on this Saturday.  Nothing really has changed with previous thinking on high temps.

94°  Today
96°  Sunday
92°  Monday

One of the factors in figuring out our highs this weekend has been the soil moisture.  The deeper/more recent moisture leads to higher humidity in the air---and therefore a slower climb in air temperature throughout the day (though the heat index gets high).

A drier ground allows for lower amounts of moisture---and therefore the air temperature can rise higher.

We are not in a drought locally, but we have been more dry than wet the past 2 weeks.  So that led us to split the difference in the models that have had anywhere from 92 to 98 for a high locally.  94-96 looks to be the more realistic range this weekend with Sunday being the hottest.

Here is the latest drought index...notice how west KY continues to get drier.  And boy, the southeast is really dry...good thing they have a weak tropical storm heading their way :) ...more on that in a second.

Here is a close up view of the drought setup locally.  Doing okay in our viewing area---but if we don't get a decent amount of rain next week---we likely will see us placed into the lower end category of the indicator. 

I mentioned a tropical storm (subtropical storm officially...meaning it has a slightly warm core. Same effects as a tropical storm however), and there is one...Beryl.  The track of Beryl will be very odd and will play a factor in our longer term forecast.

Here is the setup Sunday:   Cold front to our west.  Beryl turns due west toward the SE Coast.

By Monday night/Tuesday: the cold front moves into our area with showers/storms increasing.   Beryl makes landfall.

By Thursday:  Beryl does a 180...and turns back north east and gets stronger.  Meanwhile, a new low is approaching us from the west.

By Friday/Saturday:  Beryl races northeast back over the Atlantic. Then we face our area of low pressure.

Now here is the issue with this setup.  The low that moves into our area next week will react to Beryl.  So if Beryl fades away, doesn't moves as fast as progged, does not make that sharp of a 180 turn, etc...our forecast will drastically change.

At this point, I do think there is a good bet an area of low pressure will move into our region and slowly exist east.

Such a path would mean clouds/showers and MUCH cooler weather.

In fact, latest GFS keeps us in the 60s on Friday.

We do try to warm up after this low moves out...but I do not see mid 90s showing up again for awhile----mostly seasonal highs in the 80s.

So yes, it is certainly possible we are going to go from mid 90s this weekend to mid 60s by Friday.  But this is the Ohio Valley----nothing shocks us anymore.

Stay tuned for many adjustments to the 7 day as we try to nail down the pattern with that low and Beryl.

Were you one of the lucky ones?

53,943 Kentuckians managed to avoid feeling an impact (minor or major) from a disaster over the past 4 years.

4, 285, 424 rest of us...were not so lucky.

Paducah area appears to have been hardest hit while SE KY was the calmest.

NWS Louisville posted a great map showing the impact disasters have had on Kentucky since 2008.

Here is the full map of stats:

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/images/lmk/KY_all_disaster_map_2008_2012.pdf

Holiday Weekend... Bring it on!

We start a heat wave today... the first one of the year.  Today will also be the first time this year with high temperatures hitting the 90s.  They say Memorial Day Weekend is the unofficial start of summer, and it will definitely feel like it with near record highs through the weekend.

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A cold front slides just to the north of us today giving us a very small chance of a storm this afternoon.  If we see the rain, it would be sometime between 3pm-7pm, but there's just a 20% chance.

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If you plan of doing some yard work this holiday weekend, or you need to get the yard mowed, today before 3pm or tomorrow morning would be the best time.  If you wait until the afternoon, be ready to deal with the heat!

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With many mowing the yard and lots of folks traveling and boating this weekend, the air quality will likely suffer.  There is already an air quality alert in Nashville and Knoxville, and our air quality in Louisville is in the moderate category for today.  I would not be surprised if we are placed under an air quality alert before the holiday weekend is over.

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Plan to spend some time out on the lake this weekend?  Me too!  Here's the forecast for some popular lakes...

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Don't forget the allergy meds while you're out and about this weekend.  The pollen count is going up, and will likely stay high this weekend due to the lack of a widespread soaking rainfall.

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Holiday Weekend BREAKDOWN

Breezy and warm outside.  We should get close to 90 in spots today...but the real heat will kick in tomorrow.

I know it is a busy weekend for many of us...so here is the breakdown.

FRIDAY-  a weak front tilts into an east/west fashion and slides down to southern IN.  It will likely lead to a few storms to fire in the afternoon.  Otherwise, it will be hot.

(click on the maps to see full screen)

RAINFALL MAP                                             HIGH TEMPS

                                          

SATURDAY- the front washes out to our east as high pressure builds in.  It appears any storm chance on this day will be along and east of I 75.  Possible tropical cyclone in the Carolinas. Sunny and hot elsewhere.

RAINFALL MAP                                            HIGH TEMPS

                                         

SUNDAY- this looks to be the hottest day of the "heat wave".  Storm chance looks low.  Temps look high.  Heat index on this day could exceed 100 degrees.  If an isolated storm does manage to pop--it likely would become brief severe as it collapses.  Storm lifetimes on this day look to be maybe 15-20 mins.

RAINFALL MAP                                                HIGH TEMPS

                                              

MEMORIAL DAY-  We have what could be "BERYL" to our south and a cold front to our north approaching.  While the northern side of tropical systems usually are drier, we may see some clouds from this system.  It will be the cold front approaching however that will increase our storm chances some.  Not a washout of a day however.  Highs look a tad lower due to clouds/storm threat.

RAINFALL MAP                                                  HIGH TEMPS

                                               

SPC MAPS: no outlooks for severe storms in our area.  However, the front that drops down next week will likely have organized severe storms in the Midwest.  Unclear how strong they will be when the front arrives on TUESDAY.  D4= Sunday  D5= Monday.  We'll watch that.

Beyond the holiday weekend---there is a pretty deep trough that is forecast to move in our direction by next Friday.

This could lead to a cool shot and perhaps some stronger storms in the region.  Right now, the winds are not off the charts aloft...but highest threat does look closer to the low pressure in the Great Lakes.

There is another decent low/front that arrives a week later on June 8th/9th.  That one, too, could give us a shot at storms and cooler weather.

I don't see any heat waves forming after this weekend right now.  In fact, likely near normal temperature wise with a day or two below possible.

I will do another brief update tomorrow ( and I will be on air each morning on Sunrise through Monday with updates)---nevertheless--have a SAFE holiday weekend!!

Hurricane Season UPDATE

We already have Alberto under our belts...and it looks like Beryl is about to form in the next 48 hours off the SE Coast. More on that in a moment...

First NOAA updated the forecast about an hour ago stating a "near normal" hurricane season on tap for the Atlantic.

As many of you know, NOAA and Colorado State issue their own forecasts each year.  When I worked in the Charleston SC market, these forecasts were the lead stories at times on the news---but even the locals knew that it only takes one storm to change everything (i.e. Hugo). 

Having said that, here are the forecasts from both outlets.  NOAA gives ranges...CSU gives out actual numbers.

                                                                        NOAA                   COLORADO STATE
NAMED STORMS                                      9-15                                      10

HURRICANES                                            4-8                                         4

MAJOR HURRICANES                           1-3                                         2

 

You can see they pretty much on on the same page.  Forecasting this year is a challenge with EL NINO soon to make an appearance by late summer.  That will calm the ocean activity down quite a bit and limit any activity to areas closer to the US Coast rather than off the coast of Africa.

As mentioned at the top, there is something out there now off the coast of FL that does bear watching this weekend.  The models have hinted at this system for more than 2 weeks for the holiday weekend.  Now that the weekend is approaching, we have a better idea of what this is looking like.  National Hurricane Center only gives it a 20% chance of developing over the next 48 hours, but after that window--that should go up quite a bit.

***** UPDATE:    NHC just increased the chance of development to 40% as of 1:07 pm

The NAM model develops it pretty well into a strong tropical storm and even hints at something a bit stronger.  It takes it north at first...then backwards due west toward Savannah by Sunday. 

That is a rare track as Savannah has not seen a land-falling hurricane in more than 100 years.  Not saying this will be a hurricane, but it has a good chance of becoming a tropical storm at least.

If you have holiday plans there this weekend---make sure to stay close to the local forecasts.

 

On the Road...

We have several Relay For Life events that have taken place and/or will take place in the coming weeks.  As mentioned the other day, I got the chance to stop by the Bullitt County Relay at North Bullitt High School.  I was there to help raise support for the Eastside Middle School Cheerleading Team in Mt. Washington.   That meant I had to get into a dunking booth :)

Here is the cheerleading team:  I am the guy in red. Just in case.

She had a strong arm!

And here I am on the dunking tank.  My first drop took place just moments after this was taken !

Thanks to all that gave money to see me get dropped!  It was a good crowd out there.  We (the team) hope to make it to other relays in the coming weeks!!

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And Today--I got the chance to speak with the kids at St. Joseph Montessori School in Bardstown.  Great group of 5/6 year olds!  Very well behaved and quite educated on weather!  Here is a video of the group when I arrived.   It is linked to my facebook page below.

VIDEO OF STUDENTS

 

HOLIDAY HEAT ABOUT TO SIZZLE

The holiday weekend is quickly approaching. The last several days we've been hitting hard the potential for record breaking heat. While Kentuckiana is no stranger to temperatures in the 90s we've yet to have a 90 degree day this year. What a better way to bring in the heat than to have several days in the 90s, right? :) If you love the Summer like heat this may be great...but when we throw in extremely humid conditions the expected heat may become dangerous.

 

I'm a Hoosier native, born just North of the river. Before coming to WAVE I worked in Indianapolis for a few years. I still have family in Indianapolis and my Father has always been a huge racing fan. I grew up on NASCAR and Indy car and while I may not watch it much anymore I'll always be proud that I've been to and grown up watching the Indianapolis 500! I remember as a child we'd have Indy 500 parties and all of the kids were able to choose names out of a hat and if you chose the winner you won a prize. It was a lot of fun! While the race obviously isn't in Louisville I can only imagine how many people will make the 2 hour drive Northward to Indianapolis. If you're starting to think about what you'll need to wear...what you need to bring. Let me just say this...water, light colored clothes, and sunscreen! This could end up being the hottest Indy 500 on record.

 

If you're not going to the big race and you plan to stick around here...we won't be spared from the heat. In fact record breaking heat is possible for us, too. Not only will the actual air temperature be toasty but combined with high humidity...and it will feel miserable for many.

 

 

 

 

With the humidity being as high as it's expected to get resulting in excessive "feels like" temps I imagine Air Quality alerts will be issued. As if the oppressive heat isn't dangerous enough when the air doesn't move it becomes increasingly dangerous...especially to the young and elderly. And please don't forget about your pets...it doesn't take much for them to overheat too. :)

 

When it gets this hot a pool, lake, or the Ohio become popular places. Any body of water to cool off in sounds good to me. But it's important to remember the sun angle has shifted since the Winter months and a sunburn will be as easy as 1 - 2 - 3. UV Index will be in the "very high" to "extreme" range...ranging from 8-11 Friday through Monday. Saturday and Sunday look to be the most severe of the days. Either way...if you're not wearing sunscreen it won't take more than 8-12 minutes to get burnt with UV readings this high.

 

 

We'll continue to update you on the heat over the next few days. Keep it here to WAVE 3 for the latest. Have a great day! :)