Here is the latest monitoring board...
DATE(S) SETUP CONFIDENCE IN SETUP
Wednesday Clipper Potential West 3 out of 10
Friday Clipper Potential (May go north) 4 out of 10
Next Monday/Tuesday Potential Southern Winter Storm 4 out of 10
I know I know. Your eyes went straight to the last item. The video really goes into LOTS of detail on that one and why this one needs more time in model land. But the pattern does support a more significant system to develop. Question is...what will be the impact on WAVE Country? Plenty of time to monitor that one.
In the meantime, we still have snow showers to track this afternoon/tonight/early AM. So far, most of the snow is blowing around and any accumulations have been quite minor.
Louisville has picked up roughly 1.8" the past 24 hours. I know some of you have had a bit more...or had more and it melted away before the colder air was able to keep the snow on the ground.
This one is still showing up to impact a line from St. Louis to Paducah and begins to "round the base" over southwest KY before fading. It is a familiar track I have witnessed many times. And I will say I have seen these clippers jog just a tad more north when they do that. So that will be something we will monitor. That looks to be late Wed night/early Thursday. Bad timing I know.
I am still going over data on this one. The trend is still there for it to track from Indy to about Lexington. Louisville being on the southern edge. It, too, shows signs of fading away into the ridge of high pressure which looks to gobble it up alive. This one has a bit more energy with it, so it would be one to monitor in regards to the track. But again, areas to the north of it have a better chance at any "surprise".
Yesterday it appears a strong Arctic High would dominate the weekend. Now details are a bit fuzzy as signs are there that the clipper train won't stop. And we may see another one Saturday night into Sunday. Confidence on that is quite low. I need to see more data on this before finishing up the 7day outlook with final thoughts. It could very well impact the Sunday night/Monday system below that has most of the internet attention.
Do not trust what you are seeing on the operational models for now. They have yet to lock into the pattern. Not to mention the key players of energy involved are not even in our upper air network. So my thoughts on this are purely pattern based. High to the north. Energy drops down. Ridging showing up over the Atlantic. This typically spells a deepening low pressure over the south that would then go up the east coast. The reason the models look so different and keep flipping is that the features I mentioned above are not aligned the same way. This will remain on the back-burner for now....just know that it just remains an item of interest for now. No reason to hype it up weather fans. Let the data work itself out because if you start posting snowmaps now of what it shows...you will be wrong.
WPC sums up the setup best with their latest thoughts on this below:
THE AREA TO MONITOR --- AND WHERE THERE IS STILL SOME ROOM FOR ADJUSTMENT--- IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIRMASS ---IN THE SOUTHEAST AND INVOF PIEDMONT/OUTER BANKS --- AND WHERE THE BETTER PROSPECTS FOR DEEPENING SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPMENT HAS POTENTIAL TO BLOOM INTO A MORE PROMINENT SUB-SYNOPTIC-SCALE ENTITY. THE MEANS TEND TO 'WASH OUT' THE FEATURE AND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MODIFIED-ARCTIC BOUNDARY --- AND WHERE I THOUGHT THE WPC DAY6-7 SURFACE GRAPHIC WOULD ATTEMPT TO DEPICT THE PROJECTED SURFACE WAVE TRACK. AGAIN...BASED UPON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS AT THOSE TIME SCALES.
I know..."technical talk". It just means the models are struggling and stay tuned. ;)