Quick update regarding the storm risk this afternoon...
SPC continues with just a 5% risk for severe storms ...which is BELOW SLIGHT RISK level.
There are storms now tracking into Indiana that will send blow off cirrus clouds overhead shortly.
Current thinking is that differential heating of that cloud deck will allow for a boundary to fine-tune and help in storm initiation this afternoon. The question ...is where?
Very short-range models.... HRRR and RPM vary a bit.
HRRR blows up the storms mainly south of Louisville this afternoon. Light rain showing up across IN but that could just be the cirrus cloud shield as well.
RPM actually holds together some of the storms in IN ...pushes them through Louisville then expands coverage south of Louisville later this afternoon.
Shear profiles (risk for gusty winds) are higher to the south/west of Louisville.
Large hail potential is also found there.
Instability is very high all over the place, but highest south/west. But note the capped area to the south.
OVERALL THOUGHTS: Just like last night, short-range models are struggling with timing and the amount of warm air above our heads. You need the cool air to get storms to bust through the cap. Otherwise...you get nothing. We will trend the radar carefully this afternoon. I think the risk is higher for strong/severe storms just south/west of Louisville. In fact, if storms can bust through that cap across the south...very large hail is a risk. We saw baseball size yesterday near Paducah.
Storm chance will remain at 40% for now and will be much earlier than what we saw last night. This is mainly an afternoon/early evening event.
More updates to come...thanks for your patience!