A rare Sunday night post as I am filling in for Ryan Hoke this evening.
Main focus is now on storm chances and coverage not only the next 2 days, but through next weekend.
The pattern is looking much more active that it has as of late.
First, MEMORIAL DAY:
Now-5am: Slight chance that a shower may lift north out of TN into our southern-most counties. Roughly 10% risk as it stands now.
5am-11am: A line of storms in Missouri continues to march east. It should ease in intensity, but still a broken line of shower/storms could make it to I 65 by the end of this period. This is an important part of the forecast for the entire day as it will affect the potential high temps in the afternoon (78-82 vs 85-87 if no morning rain/clouds) and where the afternoon storms will likely pop.
11am-6pm: As mentioned above, areas west of I 65 run the best risk for morning showers/storms. Areas east of I 65 run the better risk for afternoon thunderstorms. Some locally gusty with severe threat on the low side. Areas ALONG I 65 will be the transition zone of both setups. Not a washout of a day, just have a back up plan if you have outdoor plans. Overall, expect more clouds than sunshine for the holiday.
6pm-12am Tuesday: Mainly quiet. Muggy.
Storms possible by midday/early afternoon. Some could briefly turn severe with damaging winds. An outbreak is not likely with the conditions at play with this system. SPC does have all of our area in the SLIGHT RISK for severe storms. We will keep monitoring the data on this one.
Scattered storms possible. Severe threat once again returns to low levels.
The video explains the above in much more detail and also goes into the outlook through next weekend.