The weather out there today is just awesome. Plenty of sunshine, temperatures in the 70s, a bit of a breeze... Need I say more? If you're heading out to high school football games tonight you'll want to take a light jacket as temperatures will be crusing down through the 60s as we head toward the late evening.
This weekend will be warmer with highs topping out at or above 80 degrees. There is a rain chance involved this weekend but the latest data suggests this won't be a big deal and it's even timing the chance out earlier. Late Saturday night we'll see a few scattered showers and even some thunderstorms begin to enter into our very northern counties in Southern Indiana. These will move through the area during the early morning hours of Sunday and should be somewhere near the river around sunrise. They'll clear out during the late morning to early afternoon, meaning most of Sunday will be dry even though a lot of us won't be seeing the morning rain to begin with. The stronger winds aloft are behind the cold front swinging through during the day on Sunday so severe weather just doesn't appear to be in the cards. A slower frontal passage could mean a few stronger storms with gusty winds on the Kentucky side of the river on Sunday so we'll watch that timing.
After the front is gone high pressure will move in. The surface component of the high pressure will gently meander around the eastern half of the country while the upper-air ridge over the Midwest keeps regenerating itself. The sinking air resulting from all of this means we could go a week or more without rain. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian are all chipping in on this idea of keeping us dry from Monday 22nd to Monday the 29th of this month. While high temperatures for the start of that period (also the start of fall!) would start out in the low 70s here in town with upper 60s in the outlying areas, the movement eastward of the surface high would promote warming into the 80s by the end of the next workweek.
As Brian indicated yesterday, the long-term outlook toward the first of October continues to look fuzzy. The PNA forecast on the right shows a slight downward trend toward the negative (which would indicate the possibility of warmer weather) but the lines you see are still going haywire with no definitive forecast. The overall trend toward cooler weather as we move into fall will continue but it's the warmer "bumps" along the way that we have to iron out. We'll also have to keep an eye on any Gulf tropical systems that may try to factor in.