Topics for this post:
- current setup
- weekend storm risk
- big changes next week
The 2nd cold front (humidity dropper) is currently "stuck" across southern KY this afternoon. A few showers are trying to feed on what limited moisture there is...but most will struggle if they even tried to develop. The front will get more of a push southward tonight to allow for dry weather for all areas. The dewpoints continue to drop to allow for a very pleasant evening that will last through Friday.
Saturday looks mainly dry and hot. There will be some clouds blowing overhead later in the day from storms to our northwest. But any storm action looks limited. If any changes were to be made later it would be to add a risk for fading showers across northern and northwestern sections.
Sunday will feature the start of the big changes that take place next week. A front will drop down from the north. The decent wind belt, as shown here on the NAM, develops to our north.
Instability really increases in that area (north of our counties). Showers and storms look quite likely in that region. With just pop-up storms in our area expected during the afternoon.
SPC even has them under a SLIGHT RISK already for this setup to the north.
The storms will push south Sunday night/early Monday into our area. Some of that could be quite heavy with severe risk low for the overnight period...but it could be noisy with the thunder. That leads us to Monday afternoon as the front pushes through. How cloudy/rainy we are early Monday will limit instability Monday afternoon. This looks especially true for areas along and north of I 64. Southern counties have a risk to gain some heating as show here on the GFS:
Winds are decent (not off the charts) along the front as well.
At this time, there is now "risk" area outlined by SPC for Monday...but they did issue this statement regarding the setup:
DAY 4-5 /SUNDAY-MONDAY/ SOUTH OF COLD FRONT AND WITHIN AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW REGIME...A SEVERE THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM THE MIDWEST INTO THE OH VALLEY REGION DAY 4 AND THE OH VALLEY AND NERN U.S. DAY 5 WITH SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL ALSO LINGERING OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS.
What is more likely is heavy rain and quite the lightning show for Sunday night/early Monday with a second round of storms Monday afternoon/evening across southern KY into TN more likely to be impacted.
We will trend that setup once we get closer and gain a better idea of timing to determine how unstable we likely would end up being.
The front will be a slow-mover to the south and there looks to be a 2nd front behind the main front early Tuesday. That may keep a rain chance in early in the day and/or for just southern counties Tuesday.
BIG CHANGES NEXT WEEK:
The 2nd front will really usher in the dry/cool air later Tuesday night into Wednesday. This is quite the drop showing up on the EURO (which has lead the way this summer on sniffing these out).
Highs will likely stay in the 70s for 2 to perhaps 3 days!! That is quite rare in July when normal highs are around 90 degrees. Enjoy it!!!
I wish I could say it would be just blue skies on those days---but the ground is warm/heats up fast. With such cold air aloft, cumulus clouds will bubble up daily with a few showers possible---but it will not be overcast/gloomy.
I do see us trying to warm up next weekend, but any warm-up looks slow/gradual.