Rain is moving into Louisville as of this writing and it will really put a damper on the KDF Marathon/miniMarathon this morning. The Great Balloon Race has already been canceled. There may be thunder at times, so be listening for that if you're outside. When thunder roars, head indoors!
This afternoon we see a lull in the rain. This will be a crucial time frame since the atmosphere will try to recover from this morning's rain for more thunderstorms tonight, mainly around and after sunset. Depending on how unstable we get, some of these storms tonight could be strong to severe. The wind shear isn't incredible, but it's there for the instability to take advantage of if it materializes. The strongest storms would likely happen at the start of this stormy period this evening since there may still be some sunlight.
Sunday starts dry but scattered to even widespread thunderstorms will develop during the afternoon. Stronger storms are once again on the table, but I see a slightly lower chance of severe weather than today due to lesser low-level wind shear. With that said, there's a lower chance of the forecast "busting" tomorrow since the morning looks mostly dry, unlike today. SPC has us in a Marginal Risk of severe weather tomorrow.
We're keeping an eye on next week leading up to Oaks and Derby since a cutoff low pressure may give us clouds and light showers at times. More in the video below!